Sunday, November 29, 2015

College Football Poll 11/29/2015

Well, the last full schedule of games is over with the following results.

#1 - Clemson (12-0) beat South Carolina (3-8) 37-32
#2 - Alabama (11-1) beat Auburn (6-6) 29-13
#3 - Oklahoma (11-1) beat Oklahoma State (10-2) 58-23
#4 - Iowa (12-0)  beat Nebraska (5-7) 28-20
#5 - Michigan State (11-1) beat Penn State (7-5) 55-16
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-2) LOST to Stanford (10-2)  38-36
#7 - Baylor  (9-2) LOST to TCU (10-2) 28-21
#8 - Ohio State (11-1) beat Michigan (9-3) 42-13
#9 - Stanford (10-2) beat Notre Dame (10-2) 38-36
#10 - Michigan (9-3) lost to Ohio State 42-13

I see any reason to change the top four so I'm thinking they stay the same. Next week are the conference championship games and Clemson, Alabama and Iowa are all playing.

#1 - Clemson (12-0) will host North Carolina (11-1)
#2 - Alabama (11-1) will host Florida (10-2)
#4 - Iowa (12-0) will host Michigan State (11-1)

Clearly the most interesting game here is Iowa vs. Michigan State.  With State hovering just outside playoff territory and #5 the winner secures a birth. I doubt that either Clemson or Alabama are going to get tripped up but you never know.

I suppose Oklahoma is in since they're done with their schedule. For them to lose a spot now would make just about everyone question the sanity of the playoff committee process.

Of the teams sitting on the fringe I suspect that Ohio State has the best long shot of getting in if Alabama loses to Florida.

Assuming Clemson and Alabama win then the final four should be a non-controversial no-brainer with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the winner of Iowa vs Michigan State.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

College Football Poll 11/24/2015

Wow Notre Dame's lackluster performance against Boston College really did hurt then. In the new poll they dropped behind Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan State. Florida got hurt big time as well dropping out of the top 10 altogether.

Ok, in the latest poll things look like this:

#1 - Clemson (11-0) (NC)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) (NC)
#3 - Oklahoma (10-1) (+4)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  (+1)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) (+4)
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-1) (-2)
#7 - Baylor  (9-1) (+3)
#8 - Ohio State (10-1) (-5)
#9 - Stanford (9-2) (+2)
#10 - Michigan (9-2) (+2)

I have to admit that I don't see why Oklahoma State dropped all the way to 11th behind two 9-2 teams because of a loss to Baylor nor why Stanford's win over unranked California and Michigan's win over unranked Penn State was enough to allow them to break into the top 10. Neither the AP nor USA Today polls had that sort of volatility.

Anyway, like I said, it ain't up to me. So what are the games this week?

#1 - Clemson (11-0) is at South Carolina (3-8)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) is at Auburn (6-5)
#3 - Oklahoma (10-1) is at Oklahoma State (10-1)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  is at Nebraska (5-6)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) is at Penn State (7-4)
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-1) is at Stanford (9-2)
#7 - Baylor  (9-1) is at TCU (9-2)
#8 - Ohio State (10-1) is at Michigan (9-2)
#9 - Stanford (9-2) will host Notre Dame (10-1)
#10 - Michigan (9-2) will host Ohio State

Oh aren't there some interesting ones this weekend?  Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State should be fascinating as should Notre Dame vs Stanford and then there's always Ohio State vs Michigan.

Best chances for a big upset? I'm thinking Baylor vs TCU and Iowa vs Nebraska.

This is really the last full schedule. The following week there are conference championship games and Clemson and Baylor both have final games which could be significant if something weird happens.

The final week is reserved for Army vs Navy and I don't see 2-9 Army having much of a shot against 9-1 Navy so I'm guessing Navy gets to sing 2nd for the 14th straight season.

But hey, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

The Syrian Refugee Question

Let's start with an observation. Conservatives are afraid of their own shadows. They seem to have a psychological need to be afraid of something.

They're afraid of going to hell. A place for which there is zero evidence that it exists.

They're afraid of racial diversity.

They're afraid of gays marrying.

They were utterly terrified of Ebola.

They're afraid of immigrants.

They're afraid of Muslims.

And now they're apparently afraid of Syrian refugees including 5 year old orphans.

Look, you can come up with nightmare scenarios easily enough. The question becomes how realistic are those scenarios? Are your fears rational or irrational?

Life has risks. You can't eliminate every risk. You can mitigate them and you can take reasonable precautions but if you allow yourself to give in to irrational fears you'll paralyze yourself.

Some of the analogies have been utterly ridiculous. Mike Huckabee asked if 3% of the peanuts in a bag were poisonous would you let your children eat a peanut out of that bag?

The answer is obviously no but, and this is the big but, the odds presented by Huckabee are several orders of magnitude higher than the risk of a terrorist sneaking in with refugees and, while Huckabee's example results in a certain bad result, even if a terrorist got in it doesn't mean he's going to successfully cause a problem.

In other words while 3% poison peanuts is a rational fear, the fear of 5 year old Syrian orphans is just plain irrational.

I saw a video of a Republican politician whining about not knowing the vetting process. Well John Oliver on HBO appears to know what it is and gave a summary of it the other night. I'm not sure I could pass that process.

Tell you what. Why don't you "big," "brave" (*cough, cough) gun nuts go hide in the closet and shiver in terror. We'll protect you and tell you when it's safe to come out. That will probably be a week or two after the next election.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

College Football Poll 11/22/2015

Going into Saturday's games we had the top ten as:

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (NC)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (NC)
#5 - Iowa (NC)
#6 - Oklahoma State (+2)
#7 - Oklahoma (+5)
#8 - Florida (+3)
#9 - Michigan State (+4)
#10 - Baylor (-4)

But given the results there are about to be some changes.

Michigan State (10-1) beat Ohio State (10-1) on a last second field goal 17-14
Baylor (9-1) beat Oklahoma State (10-1) 45-35.
Oklahoma (10-1) beat TCU (9-2) 30-29
Notre Dame (10-1) squeaked by Boston College (3-8) 19-16
Florida (10-1) needed OT to beat Florida Atlantic (2-9) 20-14

Elsewhere things went about as expected.

Clemson (11-0) beat Wake Forest (3-8) 33-13
Alabama (10-1) steamrolled Charleston Southern (9-2) 56-6
Iowa (11-0) beat Purdue (2-9) 40-20

So now what? Notre Dame played ugly with five turnovers but they did win and Florida played almost as ugly but they also managed to win. Do you penalize them for playing ugly against opponents they should have handled more easily? Do you promote Michigan State over Iowa?

If it were up to me I'd go with:

#1 - Clemson (11-0) (NC)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) (NC)
#3 - Notre Dame (10-1) (+1)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  (+1)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) (+4)
#6 - Oklahoma  (10-1) (+1)
#7 - Ohio State  (10-1) (-4)
#8 - Baylor (9-1) (+2)
#9 - Oklahoma State (10-1) (-3)
#10 - Florida (10-1) (-2)

Luckily it's not up to me.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

College Football Poll 11/17/2015

In the 11/10 poll the top ten schools were (change in parentheses):

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (NC)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (NC)
#5 - Iowa (NC)
#6 - Oklahoma State (+2)
#7 - Oklahoma (+5)
#8 - Florida (+3)
#9 - Michigan State (+4)
#10 - Baylor (-4)

If it looks familiar it's because it's exactly what I predicted the other day. See, anybody can get lucky on occasion.

So, what are the big games this weekend?

#1 - Clemson (10-0) will host Wake Forest (3-7) 
#2 - Alabama (9-1) will host Charleston Southern (9-1)
#3 - Ohio State (10-0) will host Michigan State (9-1) 
#4 - Notre Dame (9-1) will host Boston College (3-7) 
#5 - Iowa (10-0) will host Purdue (2-8) 
#6 - Oklahoma State (10-0) will host Baylor (8-1)
#7 - Oklahoma (9-1) will host TCU (9-1)
#8 - Florida (9-1) will host Florida Atlantic (2-8)
#9 - Michigan State (9-1) is at Ohio State (10-0)
#10 - Baylor (8-1) is at Oklahoma State (10-0)

All the top ten games are important but the big ones have to be:

Michigan State at Ohio State
Baylor at Oklahoma State
TCU at Oklahoma

If you're looking for big upset territory I'd keep an eye on Purdue at Iowa and Boston College at Notre Dame. I doubt that Clemson, Alabama or Florida will work up much of a sweat but, hey, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

Jindel is Out

Bobby Jindel finally figured out that not even Republicans are stupid enough to think he should be president and has dropped out of the race.

So who's left?

In alphabetical order on the Republican side:

1. Jeb Bush - Mr. Snooze
2. Ben Carson - Mr. Delusional
3. Chris Christie - Mr. Stay out of NJ
4. Ted Cruz - Mr. Whack Job
5. Carly Fiorina - Ms. I Screwed HP
6. Lindsay Graham - Mr. Forlorn Hope
7. Mike Huckabee - Mr. Big Moron
8. John Kasich - Mr. Unreadable
9. George Patacki - Mr. Silence
10. Rand Paul - Mr. Loopy as Daddy
11. Marco Rubio - Mr. Kid with a Charge Card
12. Rick Santorum - Mr. Upchuck
13. Donald Trump - Mr. Boss

On the Democrat side:

1. Hillary Clinton - Ms. Benghazi Kid
2. Martin O'Malley - Mr. Who?
3. Bernie Sanders - Mr. Das Kapital

I'm still betting it will be Bush and Clinton.

Monday, November 16, 2015

The Attacks in Paris

ISIS has taken "credit" for a series of terrorist attacks in Paris that's left some 130 dead.

The dead are unarmed civilians at soft targets of no military value. Attacks were staged at a rock concert and two restaurants.

In response the gun nuts are implying that somehow if the Parisians were armed things would have been better. The fact is that when people start pulling out guns how do you tell the difference between a terrorist and someone else that pulled out a gun?

ISIS is threatening to attack Washington D.C. next.

The problem of course is that soft targets are almost impossible to defend. There are too many of them and they're too vulnerable. At Sunday's NFL game between the Patriots and Giants there were noticeably more state troopers but they can't be everywhere.

Logically they would tend to congregate near the stadium. It would be almost impossible to get weapons or a bomb through the security checkpoints but someone could easily open fire in the parking lots. It would just cost $30 to get in.

I'm wondering if these attacks and threats are a sign of growing strength or a sign of desperation?

They have to know there's going to be increased military action in response.

Something like ISIS was always the danger in kicking out Saddam Hussein. Granted his time was numbered in any event and an ISIS was always a possibility when he was eventually booted out of office.

I sort of have the same opinion about Assad. What do you think is going to replace him?

College Football Poll 11/14/2015

Going into today we had the Top 10 as:

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (+2)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (+1)
#5 - Iowa (+4)
#6 - Baylor (NC)
#7 - Stanford (+4)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+6)
#9 - LSU (-7)
#10 - Utah (+2)


The game results were as follows:

#1 - Clemson (10-0) beat Syracuse (3-7) 37-27
#2 - Alabama (9-1) beat Mississippi State (7-3) 31-6
#3 - Ohio State (10-0) beat Illinois (5-5) 28-3
#4 - Notre Dame (9-1) beat Wake Forest (3-7) 28-7
#5 - Iowa (10-0) beat Minnesota (4-6) 40-35
#6 - Baylor (8-1) LOST to Oklahoma (8-1)  44-34
#7 - Stanford (8-2) LOST to Oregon (7-3) 38-36
#8 - Oklahoma State (10-0) beat Iowa State (3-7) 35-31
#9 - LSU (7-2) LOST to Arkansas (6-4) 31-14
#10 - Utah (8-2) LOST to Arizona (6-5) 37-30

With four of the top 10 schools losing on Saturday we can expect some shuffling in the #6 through #10 slots. I would think Oklahoma with it's defeat of Baylor should take a jump along with Michigan State. TCU was unimpressive beating a winless Kansas 23-17 but a win is a win.

I don't see the top five changing so let's predict the top 10 as:

#1 - Clemson
#2 - Alabama
#3 - Ohio State
#4 - Notre Dame
#5 - Iowa
#6 - Oklahoma State
#7 - Oklahoma
#8 - Florida
#9 - Michigan State
#10 - Baylor


You could make an argument that #10 should be TCU rather than Baylor but, like I said, they weren't very impressive against Kansas. One could also argue that Oklahoma State should be higher but I don't see that sort of change yet.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

College Football Poll 11/10/2015

I suppose it's a good thing I'm not a betting man. In the 11/10 poll the top ten schools were (change in parentheses):

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (+2)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (+1)
#5 - Iowa (+4)
#6 - Baylor (NC)
#7 - Stanford (+4)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+6)
#9 - LSU (-7)
#10 - Utah (+2)

I have to admit I didn't think LSU would drop seven spots for losing to Alabama and I'm a bit mystified as to why Iowa jumped ahead of Baylor but what do I know?

The AP poll is still pretty different but at least there's now agreement on #1 and Alabama is in the top four.

#1 - Clemson (+2)
#2 - Ohio State (-1)
#3 - Alabama (+5)
#4 - Baylor (-2)
#5 - Oklahoma State (+7)
#6 - Notre Dame (+2)
#7 - Stanford (+2)
#8 - Iowa (+2)
#9 - LSU (-5)
#10 - Utah (+3)

The most interesting game coming up this weekend looks to be Baylor vs Oklahoma. Another possible interesting one could be Alabama vs Mississippi State. The rest of the top ten teams appear to be playing games they should win handily but, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

College Football Poll #2

The 1st College Football Playoff Poll had the following schools in the top 10.

#1 - Clemson (8-0)
#2 - LSU (7-0) 
#3 - Ohio State (8-0) 
#4 - Alabama (7-1) 
#5 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#6 - Baylor (7-0)
#7 - Michigan State (8-0)
#8 - TCU (8-0)
#9 - Iowa (8-0)
#10 - Florida (7-1)

Only the top four will make it to the National Championship playoff. The AP list was slightly different.

#1 - Ohio State (8-0) 
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - Clemson (8-0) 
#4 - LSU (7-0) 
#5 - TCU (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1) 
#8 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#9 - Stanford (7-1)
#10 - Iowa (8-0)

Here's how things went for the top 10 teams yesterday.

#1 - Clemson (9-0) beat Florida State (7-2) - 23-13
#2 - LSU (7-1) lost to #4 Alabama (8-1) - 30-16
#3 - Ohio State (9-0) beat Minnesota (4-5) - 28-14
#5 - Notre Dame (8-1) beat Pittsburgh (6-3) - 42-30
#6 - Baylor (8-0) beat Kansas State (3-5) - 31-24
#7 - Michigan State (8-1) lost to Nebraska (4-6) - 39-38
#8 - TCU (8-1) lost to Oklahoma State - 49-29
#9 - Iowa (9-0) beat Indiana (4-5) - 35-27
#10 - Florida (8-1) beat Vanderbilt (3-6) - 9-7

So Bama should move up and TCU and Michigan State should drop out of the top 10. Baylor didn't do much for its case and neither did Florida. If I was a betting man I would expect the top four next week to be:

#1 - Clemson (9-0)
#2 - Ohio State (9-0)
#3 - Alabama (8-1)
#4 - LSU (7-1)

There's an outside chance of Notre Dame taking over the #4 spot but I doubt it. I imagine Baylor isn't real happy being at #6 but I don't see that a 31-24 win over Kansas State does much for arguing they should move up.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

College Football Poll

The 1st FBS College Football Playoff poll has been published.

I'm not a huge College Football fan but I do indulge occasionally. I think the college playoff system is a step in the right direction but given the subjectivity of the voting I don't think four spots is enough. Personally I think eight slots would be more representative.

Let's look at the initial 2015 poll. The top four schools were:

#1 - Clemson (8-0)
#2 - LSU (7-0)
#3 - Ohio State (8-0)
#4 - Alabama (7-1)

The next four were:

#5 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#6 - Baylor (7-0)
#7 - Michigan State (8-0)
#8 - TCU (8-0)

Now let's compare the latest AP Poll. The top four were:

#1 - Ohio State (8-0)
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - Clemson (8-0)
#4 - LSU (7-0)

The next four were:

#5 - TCU (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1)
#8 - Notre Dame (7-1)

The USA Today Coaches Poll had for the top four:

#1 - Ohio State (8-0)
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - TCU (8-0)
#4 - LSU (7-0)

The next four were:

#5 - Clemson (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1)
#8 - Stanford

So Clemson, ranked #1 in the FBS Poll didn't even make the top four in the Coaches Poll. Alabama, ranked #4 in the FBS Poll is 7th in both of the other two polls.

Now, granted it's still early so we shall see what we shall see. Notice that in an eight team playoff things would be consistent except for Stanford replacing Notre Dame in the Coaches Poll.

Friday, November 06, 2015

Ben Carson, lies, lies and more lies.

It seems every day a new allegation appears about a lie told by Ben Carson.

He was lying about his childhood.

He was lying about facing a gun wielding hold-up guy.

He was lying about his involvement with a rather suspect pharmaceutical company.

And now it appears he was lying about being accepted to West Point.

It also appears he thinks that the Great Pyramids in Egypt were for grain storage rather than being tombs for Pharaohs.

So Carson thinks he knows more about Ancient Egypt than Egyptologists. He rejects Evolution so he thinks he knows more about biology than Biologists and he can't do basic arithmetic because he thinks that a 10% flat tax at the federal level makes any sort of sense.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I believe that Carson is mentally ill and incapable of telling fact from fantasy. He should be under a doctor's care.

The fact that a plurality of Republicans seem to think he should be president should give you a pretty good idea of the idiocy of people who vote Republican.

Supreme Court to Rule on Contraception Mandate

Is it too much to ask a religious non-profit to submit a form in order to be exempt from providing contraception as part of its health care offering?

At least 10 religious non-profits claim that it is and that even submitting a form makes them complicit in contraception.

Up until recently the appeals courts have sided with the idea that submitting a form isn't too much to ask but now the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals has come down on the other side saying that forcing participation in the process under threat of a financial penalty violates the 1st Amendment.

This is a ridiculous argument. In any event these organizations are exempt from providing contraception. The only issue is whether they need to tell the government that. I don't see why the filing of the form can't be the responsibility of the employee seeking contraception. I would think that would resolve the issue.