The 2012 Presidential Election

As I’ve said before, Romney will win the Republican nomination.

To some extent that is a vindication of democracy and provides hope that the Republican party still has a few marbles left.

If the election were held today, Obama would probably win. Obama will also probably win in November ASSUMING that things do not spin out of control either in the economic or international arenas.

Are there possibilities for that? You bet there are. I still think the economy is a lot more fragile than it looks especially with gas prices continuing to spiral upward. Romney almost has to base his campaign on the economy and, if it begins to look like prosperity is ahead, he’s going to look awfully silly doing it.

While not precisely an economic issue per se, the fate of the Health Care Law could have an impact as well. If the SCOTUS declares all or a large part of the law unconstitutional, it would give Romney another bone to chew. It’s always difficult to predict the SCOTUS but I can’t believe the conservative majority is going to let the Health Care Law through unscathed. The only question is how bloody is it going to get?

On the international side the potential problem is the Israel and Iran tug of words.

I don’t believe that Israel is in any danger from Iran even if Iran manages to develop nukes. What I don’t know is what the Israeli’s think. I know what they say, but what do they really think? I suspect they’re smart enough to know that, at least for the moment, there’s no danger. So what I expect is a lot of talk and hand wringing designed to keep the aid and donations flowing but no military action.

The bottom line is there is a pretty good chance Obama wins. Congress is harder to gauge but the Dems could well hold onto the Senate. Even if the GOP manages to take the senate, but loses the White House, there will be a good deal of soul searching in the GOP.

If we were talking about only the rational GOP business faction, the result of that soul searching would be a shift toward the center because it would have been the center that beat them.

Unfortunately, the other factions of the Republican Party are far from rational and facts mean little or nothing to them. A swing to the extreme right for 2016 would not be impossible. Couple that with the Democrats penchant for nominating lack luster candidates and we could be facing a perfect storm of political catastrophe where someone like a Santorum or a Bachmann might actually have a chance to win.

Of course if Romney wins, that might pull the GOP into the 21st Century but I wouldn't count on it.

I wonder if Hillary Clinton, since she’s going to resign as Secretary of State, is going to run? That would certainly prevent the Dems from nominating a lack luster candidate and watching the Religious Right foaming at even the thought of a Clinton presidency would be incredibly amusing.