Michigan and Arizona Results

Well, Mitt managed a win in Michigan with 41.1% of the vote to Santorum’s 37.9% with Paul, 11.6%, and Gingrich, 6.5%, well back. As expected Romney rolled to an easy win in Arizona with 47.3%. Santorum was second with 26.6%, Gingrich third with 17.8% and Paul was last with 8.5%.

That brings the delegate count to Romney 142 (56.1%), Santorum 59 (23.3%), Gingrich 32 (12.6%) and Paul 20 (7.9%). Romney needs 1,144 to win the nomination which is an eyelash over 50% so, at least so far, he’s on pace to win if just barely.

There is a non-binding caucus in Washington on Saturday and then comes March 6, “Super Tuesday,” where 10 states have activity and 480 delegates are at stake.

The big prizes Tuesday are Ohio, with 66 delegates, and Georgia, Newt Gingrich’s home state, with 76 delegates.

The latest available polls show the leaders as:

Georgia 76 delegates: Gingrich 34%, Santorum 25%, Romney 21.5%, Paul 8.8%
Massachusetts 41 delegates: Romney 64%, Santorum 16%, Paul 7%, Gingrich 6%
Ohio 66 delegates: Santorum 34.3%, Romney 26%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 10.8%
Oklahoma 43 delegates: Santorum 41%, Romney 20.5%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 7.5%

I couldn’t locate any recent information on the other six states. These numbers could easily change with the double victory yesterday but, if they don’t, I don’t see this race converging anytime soon.

The so-called experts think a protracted primary season would be bad for the GOP. They said the same thing about the protracted Democratic primary season in 2008, but it didn’t seem to work out that way.

Let’s be realistic. It’s the economy stupid. If the economy continues to improve and gas prices stay within reason, then none of the three whack jobs, Santorum, Gingrich or Paul has much of a chance against Obama. Santorum and Gingrich are too far right and Paul is just too weird. Any of them will self destruct sooner or later by saying something utterly stupid. They won’t be able to help themselves.

Romney is a different story. If he can play the economic drum alone and stay away from social issues, I think he has a very good chance of winning assuming the Mormon thing doesn’t blow up in his face.

That leads me to something of a quandary. Do I want Romney to win the nomination or not? Yes, as much as I distrust Mitt, having one of the other three running for president, even though I expect them to destruct, is just too risky.

When the effect would be so catastrophic, even a million to one shot is too high a risk.