The Iowa Results

Well, the results are in and Mitt Romney appears to have a “victory” by a stunning 8 votes. Yes, you heard me, 8 votes over Rick Santorum 30,015 to 30,007. That comes out to 25% each and 11 delegates each.

Ron Paul finished 3rd with 21% and the final 3 delegates. After that it was Newt Gingrich with 13%, Rick Perry with 10%, Michelle Bachmann with 5% and Jon Huntsman with 1%.

So what does it mean? Not much yet. Let’s remember that Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 with 34% of the vote. Romney was second with 25% and, the eventual nominee, John McCain was 4th with 13%. If you believe in numerology that would put Gingrich in good shape but he doesn’t have the kind of New Hampshire support that McCain had.

New Hampshire is a week away followed by South Carolina 11 days later and then Florida on the 31st. In 2008 McCain won all three and established himself as the GOP heir apparent.

Evangelical Christians (also known as the Village Idiots) fueled Huckabee in 2008 and appear to have fueled Santorum in 2012. They’re not a big factor in New Hampshire but might be in South Carolina. Huckabee managed a paltry 11% in New Hampshire in 2008 but surged back to almost 30% in South Carolina so I suspect that Santorum, unfortunately, will be around for a while.

As for those finishing near the bottom of the pack, both Bachmann and Gingrich say they’re staying in the race; Perry is “reassessing” and I haven’t heard anything about Huntsman. Personally, with the possible exception of Gingrich, they’re all kidding themselves. Huntsman’s potential constituency has apparently picked Romney and Bachmann’s Santorum. Perry has just made a mess of things and, since integrity means something even to Republicans, I don’t see Gingrich staging that much of a comeback.

I expect Romney to win in New Hampshire with Paul second and Santorum a distant 3rd if he’s lucky. He could easily be eclipsed by Gingrich. That would set the stage for South Carolina where people still long for the antebellum days so who the hell knows what’s going to happen there.

The latest poll had Gingrich ahead by 12 points but that was in mid December and a lot has happened since then so we shall see.

So what’s the best case scenario? Well, that depends upon what you mean by “best case scenario?”

If you think Obama needs to be gotten out of office, then Mitt Romney has the best chance of accomplishing that and the sooner he becomes the obvious winner the better his chance will be. So you would be looking for Romney to steamroll New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

If you think Romney is the inevitable candidate in any event but believe an Obama re-election would be best, then you want to see the GOP primary, as scary as the thought of a Santorum or Paul presidency might be, drag on and get increasingly bloody.

If you’re a really greedy Liberal, you’ll hope that somehow Santorum, Paul or Gingrich manage to win which could well lead to the greatest national electoral disaster in GOP history. To my mind even the small chance of a Santorum, Paul or Gingrich victory in the general election makes this far too terrifying a scenario.

I would like to see a Romney candidacy following by a frank and honest discussion of the issues facing the country. I figure I have two chances, slim and none.

Then there’s Vice President. A victorious Romney could still well choose a Santorum or Bachmann type as his running mate to shore up conservative support which would be almost as scary, and maybe even more scary, than a Santorum or Paul candidacy.

I guess I’m hoping for a long bloody Republican process that would leave most of the country fed up with Republican nonsense. I’m willing to give Obama four more years.