It’s all about Pennsylvania

Obama takes Pennsylvania and he wins. That’s why McCain is focusing on the state. The other reason is that Pennsylvania always turns out to be closer than it looks. I learned last night that internal campaign polls show the state to be essentially a toss-up and there are clear signs of concern within the Pennsylvania Democratic organization.

Here’s how the math goes. If you take Pennsylvania out of the mix, Obama looks on track to win all the other states carried by Kerry in 2004. McCain may argue about New Hampshire but that looks more like nostalgia than reality. That’s a total of 231 electoral votes.

Obama also appears on track to win Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico with a total of 21 electoral votes. That brings Obama up to 252. Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes of its own, is an opportunity for McCain to wipe out the three Democratic gains. If Obama also takes Pennsylvania then turn out the lights because the party is over. That’s 273 votes and none of the other swing states matter.

However, if Obama doesn’t win Pennsylvania, that means he will have to take at least one and possibly two additional Red States. Either Ohio or Florida would put him over the top but both are traditionally Republican states that are very close and still have a fairly large undecided contingent. This late in the game, undecided voters tend to go their traditional way and that means Republican in these two states. I think McCain wins both Ohio and Florida.

That means Obama would have to win Virginia and either North Carolina, Missouri or Nevada. These are all states that twice voted for George Bush. North Carolina hasn’t gone Democrat since 1976! Personally I don’t see either North Carolina or Missouri going Democrat.

That leaves Virginia and Nevada. The only problem is the most recent pole in Virginia shows the state a two point toss-up and Nevada isn’t much better. I seriously think Obama needs to win Pennsylvania or he runs a very real risk of losing the election but I don’t think the Obama campaign sees it that way. McCain has a damn good chance of stealing Pennsylvania, and therefore the election, right out from under the Democrats noses.