Super Tuesday

I see a McCain-Huckabee ticket in our future. It looks like McCain has pulled ahead but Huckabee has firmly claimed the social conservative right wing of the Republican Party and McCain has no hope in the general election without those voters.

For the Democrats, it’s still neck and neck. Yahoo has Clinton with 630 pledged delegates and Obama with 625 pledged delegates. If you include the so-called Super Delegates, Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO), Clinton’s lead expands to around 820-725. The last thing the Democrats, who are all clamoring for change, want is a candidate ultimately selected by Washington insiders.

I think the script changes for McCain from here on in. Rather than campaigning against Romney and Huckabee, he can attack the Democrats in general and work to repair what appears to be a badly fractured Republican coalition.

The Democrats have to keep on trucking. Their coalition is as badly fractured as the Republicans but they’re in no position to begin repairing it until after the nomination is settled. The danger of course is that a bitter primary campaign could render that fracture difficult to repair for the 2008 election.

Honestly though, I don’t think that’s likely to happen. The differences between Clinton and Obama aren’t all that big.

Personally, I voted for Obama and I have three reasons why I did so. The first, and most important reason, is that I honestly believe he would be a less polarizing influence. I honestly think he has a chance of smoothing out some of the divisions this country has in order to get some things done. I don’t think Hillary can do that or at least won’t be able to do it as often or as well.

My second reason is that her refusal to admit she made a mistake in giving Bush the authorization to use military force in Iraq sticks in my craw. She’s effectively admitted it in every possible way other than say it directly and this really bugs me. She has lots of excuses and rationalizations for why she didn’t screw up there but I’m not buying any of them. I knew it was a freaking BAD idea so why didn’t she?

My third reason is that, when I listen to her speak, and especially about health care, I get the message “I know what’s best, there’s nothing left to discuss, I know what needs to be done.”

My reaction is that’s a dangerous attitude on complex subjects. Under such conditions there is a thin line between certainty and stupidity. You can’t be so certain you’re right that you begin ignoring data that may contradict what you “know” to be correct. This kind of attitude was my major freaking problem with Bush so why should I vote for someone else with that attitude even if she’s a whole lot smarter than Bush (which of course isn’t saying all that much) and has a much better chance of being right?

Clearly if Obama wins the Democratic nomination I’ll vote for him in November. I might even campaign for him. If Clinton wins, I’ll vote for her also because I understand that I’m not simply electing a candidate, I’m electing a political philosophy and I find the Democrat’s political philosophy much more palatable than the Republican’s. The difference is that I would do the former enthusiastically and the latter with some trepidation.