Happy 2008 (I think)

2008 is here so let the games begin! Actually they began what seems like forever ago. Of course I’m complaining about the Presidential race.

Tomorrow, January 3rd, Iowa does its thing and the race will have officially begun. The first heat will identify the two top dogs and then we can get on to the main event which again promises to be something of a barn burner. I think it’s safe to say that the early hopes for a Democratic run away have all but evaporated because the damn Democrats can’t seem to identify the right dog for the race.

How anyone other than an Evangelical Christian could vote for another Right Wing fruitcake after experiencing Bush the Unhinged is beyond my comprehension. Yet two of the three front runners on the Republican side, Romney and Huckabee, appear to fall into that category. The problem is they’re both likable kind of guys, just like Bush came across as a likable guy, so both could do well.

On the Democratic side I don’t think Hillary is as assured of the nomination as folks once thought. Obama and Edwards are still very much alive.

So let’s talk predictions for Iowa and predictions and hopes for the long haul. As far as Iowa is concerned, I doubt a lot of Republicans there will finally decide what they’re going to do until they’re in the voting booth, but my money is still on Romney to win with McCain second and Huckabee a disappointing third. I think Huckabee’s surge is more illusion than substance. People will “support” him when it doesn’t cost anything but I suspect when it counts, that support will weaken and folks will go for Mitt or John.

I also think it’s going to be Romney and McCain fighting it out in the long haul. I don’t think Giuliani’s strategy of focusing on the later primaries is going to work. Momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire is too important especially if the same guy wins both.

In the end I believe that Mitt Romney will win the nomination. Ultimately McCain’s age is going to work against him.

For the Democrats I think Obama will squeak out a win over Hillary with Edwards coming in a close 3rd. In the long haul I think this three way horse race continues with Obama vs. Clinton continuing to be the focal point and Edwards staying in the game but a tad behind the two main actors. Realistically, Edward’s only real chance may be as a compromise candidate if no one establishes a majority prior to the convention.

To be honest with you, I’m not sure any of the three Democrats can win but I’m beginning to believe that Obama has the best chance. We could be looking at the John Kennedy of the early 21st century here. If he gets the nomination, his smarts and charisma might win the day if he can overcome the criticism of inexperience and the endemic racism which exists in this country.

As far as Edwards and Clinton are concerned, I’m concerned that too many people view the former as a lightweight and the latter as a disciple of Satan himself. Hillary won’t get the nomination because ultimately people will be concerned that she will be a polarizing influence and I think most people instinctively understand that the country needs a leader that will heal the disaster of the current administration. Obama can do that, Clinton can’t.

A race between Romney and Obama may well bring out the worst that this country has to offer but, in the final analysis, it might be an eye opening experience for a lot of folks. With any luck we might see the Radical Right Wing self destruct during the process because neither candidate is acceptable to it. This could allow the Republican Party to restore its Moderate Conservative roots.

In the Best Case scenario, the Radical Right breaks off and offers it’s own Conservative Christian candidate (not Huckabee though, Mike’s too smart for that) who gets hammered by both Romney and Obama but who siphons off enough votes in enough swing state for Barack to establish a solid electoral mandate.

Then we can establish Camelot II and begin to clean up the mess of the last eight years.