A Government by Billionaires for Billionaires

 Democrats are complaining that Trump is creating a government by billionaires for billionaires.

I say and this is different from previous governments how?

The Democrats could have undone the Trump tax cuts...but they didn't.

The Democrats could have restored the SALT deductions...but they didn't.

The Democrats could have undone Trump's tariffs...but they didn't. In fact Biden increased tariffs on China.

Either party could have addressed Social Security...but they didn't. In fact the last time the SS trust fund was going to be exhausted in 1983 congress waited until a month before it hit $0 before it did anything.

Either party could have added vision and dental to Medicare...but they didn't.

Either party could have allowed Medicare to negotiate the price of all drugs rather than simply the 10 they allowed...but they didn't.

Either party could have seriously begun investigating Universal Healthcare...but they didn't.

Either party could have established a rational minimum wage...but they didn't.

Honestly, I don't see much of a difference between the two parties when it comes to caring for the people who get up every day, go to work and keep the place running. Maybe we need a fucking general strike to remind them who pays their salaries.

Why I don't Like DEI

DEI means hiring someone based upon race or gender even if they are less qualified. The problem with DEI is that not all pools of talent are equal. Something like 90% of engineers are male. If a company decided that, because of DEI, they needed to hire 50% male and 50% female engineers there is no way that the 50% female engineers would be at the same quality as the 50% male engineers simply because the pool to chose from is much smaller. Same thing with nurses but the genders are reversed. Think about how boring the NFL would be if only 13% of the players were black.

If you're arguing that diverse representation makes sense in some cases then are there cases where not having diverse representation makes sense? My town is 90% white and 10% Asian. Should we be hiring only white and Asian police and teachers? If you're claiming that in some situations only a black person can understand other black people then wouldn't the same be true for white, Asian and Hispanic people?

DEI does more harm than good. We shouldn't be putting less qualified people in important positions simply because of their race or gender. Worse is that things like DEI and Affirmative Action lead to resentment and backlash.

How Social Security Works

Every once in a while I read comments by people about Social Security and I am appalled at the confusion about how Social Security works. 

It was never intended to work like a 401K where the money is put into a dedicated account. Social Security is a payroll tax levied on both the employer and employee. The money goes toward paying current Social Security benefits. Any excess funds (positive cash flow) go into a dedicated trust fund which is invested in Special Issue Treasury Bonds (effectively government IOUs) with a variable interest rate based upon the going bond rate. It's invested in Treasury Bonds because that is considered the safest type of investment.

If not enough money is collected in payroll taxes to pay current obligations (negative cash flow) then bonds are cashed in to make up the difference. Once the trust fund is exhausted then benefits must be cut since money from the general fund can't be used to fund Social Security without a change to the law.

From time to time the Social Security cash flow needs to be adjusted due to changing demographics either by reducing outlays, increasing receipts or some combination of the two. This is not a big surprise. Everyone knew this was a requirement. The last time the cash flow was adjusted was in 1983 when both the retirement age and payroll taxes were increased. Congress waited until a month before the trust fund was exhausted before it did anything.

Social Security had a positive cash flow until 2020 so the trust fund was growing. In 2020 the trust fund held $2.9 trillion. Since then Social Security has been selling bonds to meet its payment obligations. At the end of 2023 the trust fund held a little under $2.8 trillion. The latest Trustee Report estimates that the trust fund will be exhausted in 2036.

Any bill that either increases benefits or cuts revenue would bring that date in closer which is what Roy is acknowledging here. Trump's idea of eliminating  income taxes on Social Security benefits, while it would help many people, would also reduce Social Security revenues and exhaust the trust fund sooner because those taxes also go into the trust fund.

So here's the deal. Nobody "stole" from Social Security. The money is invested in Treasury Bonds which pay interest. It's like someone buying a CD. They're effectively lending the bank money and the bank pays them interest. Whether Social Security could get a better rate of return is a point of contention. But it probably couldn't without more risk as rate of return and increased risk tend to go together,

Trump's Cabinet and Other Key Picks

 I'm not going to go through all of his announced selections but just the more interesting ones.

White House chief of staff: Susie Wiles - I suppose he figures that if she could get him elected then she can keep his staff toeing the line and doing nothing but sing little Donnie's praises. Good luck with that lady. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Secretary of state: Marco Rubio - Not a bad pick considering he's a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. However, I just wonder if he lacks the flexibility that he might need as top diplomat.

Attorney general: Matt Gaetz - This is a complete joke. Gaetz should be under investigation by the DOJ and not leading it. This is a nominee that the senate should reject. Unfortunately I doubt there are enough Republicans that care enough about the country to make it happen.

HHS secretary: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - This is another complete joke that should be rejected by the senate. Kennedy has no background in health administration and espouses long debunked conspiracy theories about vaccines. I don't disagree with some of his ideas about processed foods but in general his opinions are loony tunes if not downright dangerous.

U.N. ambassador: Elise Stefanik - I thought that this was a horrible idea until I heard some of the other proposals. I could probably live with this as the UN is rapidly becoming totally ineffective anyway.

"Border czar": Tom Homan - This guy is a former ICE Director and appears to be all for Trump's mass deportation idea. Good luck getting the funding from Congress Tom. I expect the deportation effort to be significantly less than "mass" and quietly peter out within a year and a half. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Defense secretary: Pete Hegseth - Another selection who's qualifications appear to be highly suspect but I don't know enough about the guy to take a strong position either way. What I've been hearing isn't terribly encouraging though.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem - She's the current governor of South Dakota and Trump claims that she's "very strong on border security." That's a pretty good trick considering that South Dakota doesn't have any foreign borders. On the other hand if she can handle being a governor then I'm sure she can manage Homeland Security.

Director of national intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard - This pick may be even worse than the Gaetz and Kennedy picks. Gabbard has zero credentials in intelligence and many of her ideas about how the world works are iffy if not downright delusional. If there is only one nomination that the senate rejects it should be this one.

 U.S. ambassador to Israel: Mike Huckabee - The best part about this pick is that it will get Huckabee out of the country. The Israelis must be laughing themselves silly.

Department of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy - Or DOGE, the same as the crypto currency that Musk pushes. I expect this to be a joke with clown 1 and clown 2 doing a lot of pontificating but accomplishing very little. I'm pretty sure that no senate confirmation is required here.

That's it; I'm tired of playing this game. Trump seems more interested in not having someone disagree with him than actually accomplishing anything. But, you never know. I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

One Good Thing

Kari Lake lost the senate race in Arizona. That is one good thing that came out of this election.

May we never hear from that crazy again.

Does Gen Z Have it Tougher than We Did?

 The short answer is yes, I think they certainly have it harder than us Boomers had it. Part of that is beyond their control and part of it is being seduced by Madison Avenue.

The minefield was certainly less dense back in my day. 

I graduated college in 1969 from the City University of New York. It was tuition free and I lived with my parents and commuted until I graduated so no student debt. 

I had a $300 1961 Mercury Comet that my dad gave me so no car loan. He replaced the Comet with a $150 Ford Fairlane. 

There were no charge cards so no charge card debt. 

There was no internet, cable TV or cell phones so these expenses just didn't exist. 

Air fares were regulated so no one but the rich could afford to fly regularly. That meant that most vacations were pretty much limited to where you could get to by car. 

With no internet there was no online shopping with all the potential pitfalls that come with that. Plus, every decent company provided good health insurance AND a real life pension.

As I've pointed out previously, tuition has significantly outpaced inflation and so have home prices while median salary has fallen short of keeping up with inflation.

The average price of a new car in 1980 was $7,500. Today it's $48,400. Just judging by inflation one would expect it to be $28,500. 

On the plus the interest rates on the huge mortgages and car loans that you need are lower. But there are predatory lenders out there that are happy to take advantage of someone with a low credit rating.

So I think overall it's safe to say that things are harder but not impossible. Everyone starts out with little and has to work their way up. But it might take longer for the current generation than it took for us.

Why Did Trump Win?

Trump won because the Republicans read the room better than the Democrats.

Most Americans want a stable and secure economy and a safe environment. Notice that the GOP very effectively implied that those two desires were in imminent danger. That's why they won.

I don't want to argue about whether the economy is bad or whether illegal immigrants are causing a massive crime wave because the reality almost doesn't matter. What matters is the perception.

The perception is that the economy and crime are a problem and the Republicans played on those perceptions. The Democrats quoted statistics and tried to convince people that what they were seeing at the local supermarket was wrong.

Another issue is the Democrats are perceived as the party of wokeness and we're in the middle of a severe backlash against woke philosophy. It's hard to tell how big a role this played but I'm pretty sure it contributed.

So now what?

It's been my experience that Republicans tend to campaign well but govern poorly. I figure they have two years to try and convince people that voting for them wasn't a big mistake but I'm not sure they can do it.

I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

November 10th, 2024

One more update.

Trump - 312, Harris - 226

Trump leads the popular vote 74.5 million to 70.9 million

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 46

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

Bob Casey is losing in Pennsylvania

House: GOP - 212, Dems - 204

The GOP has flipped 6 seats and the Dems 5 so a 1 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5. 

November 6th, 2024, 8 AM Update

 8:00 AM

Trump - 276, Harris - 223

Trump leads the popular vote 71.3 million to 66.2 million

Wisconsin put Trump over the top. Harris picked up New Hampshire.

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 203, Dems - 178

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

November 6th, 2024 - Trump Wins

Or at least he's so close to winning as to make no never mind about it. Being Trump he declared victory after winning Pennsylvania rather than waiting to hit 270. Well, I suppose I'm doing the same thing.

4:00 AM

Trump - 266, Harris - 219

Trump leads the popular vote 69.7 million to 64.4 million

Trump has taken Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Maine 2 and Alaska so it's only a matter of time. We appear to be heading for a 312-226 Trump victory. It also looks as if he might be the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.

Senate: GOP - 51, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 200, Dems - 172

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

So we're heading towards a worse case scenario beyond which even I predicted. Oh well, I hope the stock market is happy.

Election Night, November 5th, 2024

I'm not going to stay with this very long. I'll take it to around 10 PM and then call it a night.

7:00 PM

Trump - 19, Harris - 3

Senate: GOP - 39, Dems - 28

House: GOP - 5, Dems - 1

8:00 PM

Trump - 90, Harris - 27

Trump's total includes Florida so the idiots that thought that state may have been in play can go and sit in the corner and STFU.

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 31

House: GOP - 40, Dems - 20

8:30 PM

Trump - 105, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 18.8 million to 15.7 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 160,000 votes.

House: GOP - 54, Dems - 28

Josh Gottheimer is losing by 11,000 votes. That's not good.

9:00 PM

Trump - 154, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 22.5 million to 18.9 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 200,000 votes.

House: GOP - 76, Dems - 35

Josh Gottheimer is now winning by 33,000 votes. That's better.

9:30 PM

Trump - 168, Harris - 62

Trump leads the popular vote 30.6 million to 27.6 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 250,000 votes.

House: GOP - 105, Dems - 66

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 33,000 votes.

10:00 PM

Trump - 201, Harris - 81

Trump leads the popular vote 38.0 million to 33.7 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 256,000 votes.

House: GOP - 131, Dems - 84

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 31,000 votes.

This is it. I'm going to call it a night. I will pick up whenever I wake up in the morning.

Election Day, November 5th, 2024

We voted this morning a little before 9 AM. We just beat a small surge of voters and basically walked right in with no wait. My daughter voted at 6 AM before going to work.

The new voting machines take a while and print out a paper ballot which you have to feed into a collection box. I liked the old machines better. They were faster and easier to use but I suppose these are more secure.

I'm not going to go crazy tonight since, despite what some sites are saying, I don't see this as much of a nail biter. I will probably sign off around 10 PM.

The 2024 Election, November 4, 2024

I figured that I would wait for the eve of the election to post my final pre-election thoughts.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-32), Harris - 276 (-+35), Toss Up - 16 (-3)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 211 (-4), Toss Up - 108 (+4)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

I don't see enough to change my opinion that Trump will win probably with a 287-251 electoral vote victory. Electoral Vote flipped back to Harris but the overestimated Biden in 2020 by quite a lot so I don't see that as significant. 

I added "Polling Map - No Tossups" and it came in at 287-251 as well. The only glimmer of hope that I see for Harris is things slid slightly in her direction but I don't see enough of a change especially given the amount of early voting that has occurred.

Now let's look at the Senate and House for a second. Electoral Vote has the GOP taking the Senate 52-48 and Real Clear Politics has them also winning 52-48. RCP has the GOP ahead in the House 201-192 with 42 tossups.