Friday, October 11, 2024

Medical Issues, October 11, 2024

So, I've been going to physical therapy for three weeks and it's not high on my lists of things I like to do. Interestingly enough my left knee is giving me more trouble than my broken ankle. The ankle doctor said my right leg would again be my good leg and I think I'm already there. I have two more weeks, four days, of therapy scheduled.

Wearing the brace is much, much better than the boot even though getting in and out of it is a bit of a pain. Still, at least I don't feel wobbly like I did with the boot. I now use a cane rather than the walker except when I'm on the tiles in the play room.

Monday I go for the CT scan and I get the results, and find out what new horrors I'll have to endure, on the 29th. I see the ankle doctor on the 31st. Hopefully I can then dump the physical therapy and the brace.

After we get the right ankle patched up I'll have to decide what do do about the left knee.

The way things are going I might have to start searching for a bridge that I can jump off of.

The 2024 Election, October 11, 2024

I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.

Friday, October 04, 2024

The 2024 Election, October 4, 2024

Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Same rules, sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+6), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 124 (-6)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+10), Toss Up - 68 (-10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 232 (-9), Toss Up - 87 (+52)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Another good week for Trump who clearly appears to have the momentum. 

Friday, September 27, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 27, 2024

 Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (+26), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 130 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 78 (+10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+43), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 35 (-43)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

Overall a slightly better week for Trump. But it looks like everyone is as unsure as I am about this thing. You can read article from pundits declaring everything from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide.

I still take the position that Trump wins unless the numbers begin to change dramatically and I don't think that's going to happen.

Saturday, September 21, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

Friday, September 13, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.