The ERA Amendment, Again

President Joe Biden has declared "The Equal Rights Amendment is the law of the land — now!" 

He made this announcement during a speech to the U.S. Conference of Mayors. "It's the 28th amendment to the Constitution — now."

Or, maybe not. 

Supporters claimed that when Virginia ratified five years ago that it was the 38th state to do so and therefore the amendment had been ratified. Biden didn't say why he waited until only two days were left in his presidency to make this pronouncement.

Biden can declare whatever he wants but the President has no role in amending the Constitution. The amendment would have to be certified by the National Archivist and the Archivist's office has said that the ERA "cannot be certified as part of the Constitution due to established legal, judicial, and procedural decisions."

There are a flurry of issues with this amendment. 

The first issue is time. The original amendment had a time limit in the preamble of March of 1979. Then Congress extended the time limit until June of 1982. A federal district court held that congress had no power to do that. This was appealed to the SCOTUS which allowed the date of June 1982 to pass and then declared that the issue was moot.

Supporters claim that since the time limit was in the preamble it doesn't count. Well, then why did Congress extend it? Even if the original limit didn't count certainly one could argue that the extended one counts. The SCOTUS essentially said so when it declared the issue moot.

The second issue is that six state legislatures, Nebraska, Tennessee, Idaho, Kentucky, South Dakota and North Dakota, have rescinded ratification. The Kentucky resolution to rescind was vetoed by the Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky acting in the absence of the governor.

So there are two questions here. First, can a state rescind ratification? It would make sense that it could in order to give voters a chance to express disapproval. 

If it can, then can the governor veto the resolution that rescinds ratification? Although that wouldn't matter here but it leads to the question of whether a governor can veto ratification? I would say he can't veto ratification so he probably can't veto rescinding ratification assuming that a state can rescind ratification.

I think this duck is dead regardless of what Biden says. I'll be surprised if we hear any more about it although it would nice to have the SCOTUS resolve all the open questions.

Potential Republican Cuts?

Politico published a list of cuts that House Republicans are supposedly considering supposedly to fund Trump's tax cuts and mass deportation agendas. I've included the list but I have no way of knowing either how accurate the list is or how accurate the savings numbers are. The savings are over 10 years.

PENDING REFORM OPTIONS

Policy Explainer

Topline Savings: $5.3 - $5.7 T

1. REPEAL MAJOR BIDEN HEALTH RULES ($420B)

2. STRENGTHEN MEDICARE FOR SENIORS ($479B)

o Site Neutral – $146B

o Uncompensated Care – $229B

o Bad Debt – $42B

o BCA Mandatory Sequester Extension - $62B

3. MAKING MEDICAID WORK FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE ($2.3T)

o Per Capita Caps - up to $918B

o Equalize Medicaid Payments for Able Bodied Adults - up to $690Bo Limit Medicaid Provider Taxes - $175B

o Lower FMAP Floor - $387B

o Special FMAP Treatment for DC – $8B

o Repeal American Rescue Plan FMAP Incentive – $18B

o Medicaid Work Requirements - $120B

4. REIMAGINING THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT (ACA) ($151B)

o Recapture Excess Premium Tax Credit – $46B

o Limit Health Program Eligibility Based on Citizenship Status - $35Bo Repeal the Prevention Public Health Fund – $15B

o Appropriate Cost Sharing Reductions - $55B

5. ENDING CRADLE-TO-GRAVE DEPENDENCE ($347B)

o Reinstate the Trump-era Public Charge Rule -- $15B

o Reduce TANF by 10 Percent – $15B

o Eliminate the TANF Contingency Fund -- $6B

o Reform the Thrifty Food Plan -- up to $274B

o Eliminate the Social Services Block Grant – $15B

o SNAP Reforms – $22B

6. REVERSING BIDEN CLIMATE POLICIES ($468B)

o Discontinue the Green New Deal Provisions in the 2021 Infrastructure Bill – $300B

o Repeal EV Mandate – $112B

o Repeal IRA green energy grant s– $56B

7. OTHER: ($917B-$1T)

o End the Student Loan Bailout – $200-330B

o Rescind all Unspent COVID Money – $11B

o Auction Spectrum – $60 billion

o Repeal Orderly Liquidation Authority – $22 billion

o Increase FERS Contributions – $45 billion

o Other federal employee benefit reforms – $32 billion

o Restrict emergency spending to recent average—$500B

o Eliminate the TSP G Fund Subsidy – $47B

8. POTENTIAL TAX OFFSETS: ($227-$527B)

o Green energy tax credits – $200 - $500B, depending on political viability

o SSN CTC Requirement – $27B 

College Football Playoff IV

I forgot all about the game last night and missed it. Well, I'm not missing tonight's game.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Well, only two left. It should be quite a treat. Interesting that the 7th and 8th seeds made it to the title game.

Stock Options

Ever wonder how CEOs and other executives get really rich really fast? Well no more. Welcome to the wonderful world of stock options.

Salary and stock granted as compensation are taxed as ordinary income but not stock options because the option may never be exercised.

Incentive stock options which are awarded to CEOs and executives are known as statutory stock options.

From IRS Topic no. 427, Stock options:

"Options granted under an employee stock purchase plan or an incentive stock option (ISO) plan are statutory stock options."

Also from IRS Topic no. 427"

"If your employer grants you a statutory stock option, you generally don't include any amount in your gross income when you receive or exercise the option. However, you may be subject to alternative minimum tax in the year you exercise an ISO...You have taxable income or deductible loss when you sell the stock you bought by exercising the option. You generally treat this amount as a capital gain or loss. However, if you don't meet special holding period requirements, you'll have to treat income from the sale as ordinary income."

So stock options have two advantages. First, you get to buy the stock at below market value because options are almost always discounted. Second, assuming you meet the holding period requirements which are typically pretty modest, the compensation is treated as Long Term Capitol Gains rather than ordinary income. Hell, if you hold onto the stock no taxes may be paid for 10, 20 years.

If you think this is fair, then so be it. I think it's insane that we have store clerks paying normal income tax while CEOs get millions in compensation that they only pay LTCGs on or perhaps no tax at all for years.

College Football Playoff III

Today is the postponed Sugar Bowl.

It's the 12 team playoff format.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

TBD vs. TBD (Orange Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Jan. 10

TBD vs. TBD (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

TBD vs. TBD (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Talking Generations

People on line love to criticize generations. Gen Z is this or Boomers are that seems to be a popular topic.

I think it's dangerous and misleading to characterize an entire generation. There are often big differences between the youngest members of a generation and the oldest. People seem especially fond of criticizing Gen Z. According to a number of videos that I've seen recently they're apparently the reason for teachers quitting. But if people are referring to current middle school and high school students then they are the younger Gen Z members. The older ones would already be in their 20s.

Sometimes the differences between younger and older members of a generation are huge because the differences in their life experiences are huge.  Consider Boomers from 1946 to 1964. The youngest had parents that were children, or not even born, during WW 2, never had to register for the draft, were born after, or were too young to remember, the Kennedy assassination and were too young to be a part of the 60s sexual revolution. For the oldest their parents were WW 2 veterans or worked in the factories building the weapons, the draft was a major part of their lives, the Kennedy assassination was a watershed moment and "make love not war" was their calling card. A Boomer born in 1948 (waves hand) is a totally different animal than one born in 1962. I have to assume that the same is true for Gen Z.

Some Notes on Inflation

There are two types of inflation. The first is cost-push inflation. This occurs when production costs increase leading companies to increase prices. This is the primary type of inflation that we've been experiencing since the end of Covid.

The second is demand-pull inflation which occurs when consumer demand exceeds available supply. When you raise salaries on a broad scale in order to try and catch up with cost-push inflation it will often lead to demand-pull inflation because more people have more money to spend. 

But raising salaries will always outpace demand-pull inflation. When salaries fail to keep up with inflation it is almost always cost-push inflation that is causing the problem.

Still Arguing about the 2024 Election

People continue to argue about why Trump won. Personally I'm not sure if Trump won or the Democrats lost. I see lots of claims that Trump's victory was somehow based upon "bigotry." 

I don't think "bigotry" had a lot to do with it. It was primarily the economy; it's almost always the economy. The Republicans, with lots of help from the media, made the case that the economy was in shambles, that inflation was much higher than it was and somehow this was all the fault of illegal immigrants. This perception was something neither Biden nor Harris adequately addressed. Instead they quoted economic indicators. Economic indicators don't pay bills or put food on the table.

A second issue was that the Dems keep pushing unpopular policies that are related to economic issues. Just look at the ABC/Ipsos poll on the Supreme Court decisions in the summer of 2023. 

45% approved of the Court striking down Biden's loan forgiveness program and only 40% disapproved. But only 17% of Democrats agreed with the Court.

52% approved of the Court striking down Affirmative Action and only 32% disapproved. But only 26% of Democrats agreed with the Court.

A third issue is that the Dems didn't address things that people expected them to address when they had majorities in both houses and the presidency. They didn't put in place a national law to protect abortion; they didn't raise the minimum wage; they didn't restore full SALT deductions; they didn't expand Medicare to cover eye exams and dental and they didn't do anything to shore up Social Security.

A party can't be this far out of touch with the majority of the country, fail to do the things they claim to support and succeed,

College Football Playoff II

So the second round starts tonight. This is a lot more relaxing than doing anything related to politics.

It's the 12 team playoff format.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21. No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have low. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl) | 8:45 p.m. | ESPN

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

TBD vs. TBD (Orange Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Jan. 10

TBD vs. TBD (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

TBD vs. TBD (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN