150 Year-Olds Getting Social Security

 DOGE has found FRAUD!!! (not really). At least one commentator called it the biggest money laundering scheme in history!!! (he's just an idiot). Trump's press secretary broke the stunning news that tens of millions of people were fraudulently receiving Social Security checks!!! (nah, also not true).

So what's going on?

A couple of things really. Musk put out a spreadsheet supposedly listing the number of people at various ages marked as "alive" in the Social Security database including thousands that were listed at 150 years old. The list, for all ages, totaled up to almost 400 million people.

So Musk, the commentator and the press secretary immediately yelled FRAUD!!! If they had done just a tad more research they might not have made themselves look foolish.

First, the obvious. Being marked as "alive" is not the same thing as receiving benefits even if you appear to be old enough to do so.

Second, Social Security uses COBOL to manage its database. COBOL tracks dates by using a counter from a reference date. The usual reference date used is May 20th, 1875, which is the date of the signing of the international treaty on weights and measures. Any date not entered, or entered in the wrong format, would get a zero value and default to May 20th, 1875 which is probably how they're getting 150 year-olds.

Third, Social Security automatically stops benefits if someone turns 115. I suppose if you really do live that long you'll have to figure out a way to get them turned back on. When I get to 115 I'll let you know.

Fourth, the Inspector General's Office did a report in 2023 reporting that many entries for individuals showing as over 100 years old were incomplete but...since 98% of them weren't receiving benefits anyway, it wasn't worth the cost to update them.

So it's all a big fart nothing but now we have millions of people thinking that Social Security is a big money laundering fraud. So Musk and company have achieved their goal of making Social Security vulnerable.

Equity vs Equality

The "E" in DEI stands for equity and not equality. So what's the difference?

According to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, "Equal­i­ty assumes that every­body is oper­at­ing at the same start­ing point and will face the same cir­cum­stances and chal­lenges. Equi­ty rec­og­nizes the short­com­ings of this ​“one-size-fits-all” approach."

The above image is a famous example. The first image represents "equality" where each person gets one box even though the first individual doesn't even need it. The second image represents "equity" where each individual gets what he needs.

Other examples include shoe sizes and healthcare. It's better to give each person shoes that fit rather than the same size and it makes more sense to treat what's actually wrong with the patient rather than giving each patient the same treatment.

The problem with all of these examples is they assume infinite resources and everyone ending up with a satisfactory conclusion.

Let's modify the fence analogy a bit and assume that the fence represents an obstacle to success and being able to look over the fence represents overcoming the obstacle and achieving success. Let's also assume that the boxes represent an investment in resources such as education and training.

Realistically no one can succeed without some investment in resources so let's modify the first picture to show all three individuals blocked by the fence and each needing one, two and three boxes respectively to see over it.

Equality would be giving each person one box. That would allow only one person, the tallest, to succeed. Therefore we would get one success at a cost of three boxes. 

If we gave each individual what they needed to succeed it would cost six boxes and we would get three successes. Each success would now cost only two boxes but we would need twice the resources.

Now let's consider what the height of the individuals in the example represents. It would seem the taller an individual is then the fewer resources are required for him to succeed so perhaps height represents talent or aptitude. 

Well, if we were to search out three tall individuals, and give each of them one box, then we would get three successes for three boxes or one success per box. Alternatively we could give the tallest one box, the medium height individual two boxes, and the shortest individual none and get two successes for our three boxes.

This is a strategic allocation of resources intended to maximize return on investment,

This is what we used to do. We would use testing and interviews to find candidates that had the highest probability to succeed for the fewest resources. I'm not sure why we stopped doing this. No one has a right to demand a greater resource investment because they are less likely to succeed. 

Certainly no one has the right to demand that resources be taken away from someone else so they can succeed.

Me and Trump and a Dog Named Blue

Nort much of a title because I couldn't even get it to rhyme.

So what do I think about Trump's actions so far?

Illegal Immigration

I don't have a problem with declaring an emergency or sending troops to the southern border. It's just unclear to me if these moves are going to be effective as well as flashy. If you listen to the MAGATs then the southern border has been closed; if you listen to others then not so much.

Besides, I don't think troops can be kept there indefinitely so this may turn out to be just a stop gap measure.

As for rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them, again I'm not sure if this is more than a flash in the pan. In FY 2024 271,000 illegal immigrants were deported. That comes out to 742 a day. So far the numbers under Trump have been higher but not that much higher, In the first week DHS reportedly deported 7,300 people. That comes out to 1,042 a day but there may have been people already in the pipeline.

Trump is reportedly unhappy with the pace and has communicated to senior ICE officials a “quota” of 75 arrests per day for each of the agency’s 25 field offices. That would be 1,875 arrests per day. It's unclear what percentage of arrests result in deportations but let's assume it's 100%. That would be 684,375 deportations. If there are 11 million illegal immigrants that would take about 16 years to get the job done assuming no more enter.

Then again Stephen Miller says that the 1,875 arrests represents a floor and not a ceiling.

None of this works unless you eliminate the attraction for coming here by making people that hire illegal immigrants face harsh penalties.

Elimination of DEI Offices and Programs

This works for me as well. As I've said I think DEI does more harm than good but some of his underlings might be taking things a bit too far such as removing a training video featuring the Tuskegee Airman. Yes it was restored but come on.

Threats about Greenland and the Panama Canal

This is just idiotic. If Denmark wants to sell Greenland (they don't) and the people of Greenland want to be part of the US (they don't) that would be OK but they don't and they don't.

Trump should leave Panama alone. The new carriers can't fit through the canal anyway.

DOGE

I talked about this at length in the previous post. This is the dumbest thing that Trump has done. Even if the function is a good idea having Elon Musk lead the effort is not.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Clearly Trump thinks he can get some sort of concessions related to illegal immigrants and drugs crossing the border. If he can, then more power to him. But if he can't, then he paints himself into a corner where either he has to blink or put a big dent in the economy, risk inflation and make the stock market even more gimpy than its been. I've been getting whiplash from following the gyrations.

Tariffs on China

It's less clear to me what he's trying to accomplish here. I think I'll take a wait and see attitude.

Displacing the Palestinians from Gaza and Building a Tourist Resort

WTF man? Just WTF? I'm glad Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians told him to stuff it. I mean displace hundreds of thousands of people? WTF man? Just WTF?

Banning Trans Athletes in Women's Sports

I sort of agree with the objective here but I'm not sure this is going to accomplish a ban. It changes the interpretation of Title IX to no longer include allowing trans athletes to compete in events of their gender rather than their sex but not protecting something is not the same thing as banning it.

DOGE

DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency is a big problem primarily because Elon Musk is running it.

I have no issue with investigating inefficiency and fraud but, first, I thought we had an Inspector General's office to do that? What are those folks doing to earn their pay? 

Second, having someone investigating that cares more about being in the limelight than actually doing the job is a major problem. From what I've heard some of the stunts he's pulled are causing severe irritation if they aren't downright illegal. Musk and his goons should not have access to sensitive personal information such as security numbers and medical records.

Third, there is a clear conflict of interest here because and "cuts" that Musk comes up with will go directly toward financing the tax cuts he and his ilk have been promised.

Allow me to explain. The Republicans want to implement tax cuts or at the very least make the Trump tax cuts from 2017 extended or permanent, They don't have to votes to do that in the Senate except through a Budget Reconciliation bill which only requires 51 votes to pass. They might even have a hard time getting that but they're never getting 60 votes for a tax cut.

But, Budget Reconciliation must be budget neutral and tax cuts are considered spending. So for every tax cut dollar they need to a cut a dollar from current spending. Do you see the problem here? Musk and others stand to benefit directly from any spending cuts. That's a conflict of interest.

Black History Month

February is "Black History Month."

Personally I was never a fan of any of the various "months." They didn't bother me but I just never saw the point especially given that they made the shortest month of the year "Black History Month" (yes, I know that it coincides with the birthdays of President Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass which is why it's February).

Why should we celebrate subgroups of Americans? Why are we constantly dividing people into competing groups? Celebrating the accomplishments of individuals is different. I don't see anything wrong with that as long as the individual and the accomplishments are worthy of celebrating. The melting pot concept was much better than having groups that are constantly competing with each other rather than working toward a common goal.

I also hear people mixing up equality and equity and sometimes using them as interchangeable.

Equality and equity are two very different things. Equality provides equal opportunity while equity requires equal outcomes which is a little absurd. I can give you the opportunity to bat in a major league baseball game but I can't guarantee that you'll hit the ball.

The FAA and DEI

With the collision of an American Airlines plane and an army helicopter in DC the other night, and then Trump blaming the collision on DEI, I figured I should look into this a bit.

Having had some interaction with the FAA while training as an aircraft mechanic I can safely say that at least back then these were not people about to cut any corners. Safety was their first, last and middle names for obvious reasons.

But that was a long time ago. What about now?

What I do know is the FAA was using a "Biographical Assessment" test as a screening tool from 2013 up until 2018 for ATC candidates. 

Some critics argued that the questionnaire could lead to hiring less qualified candidates but proponents disagreed. 

There is an ongoing class action lawsuit related to the "Biographical Assessment" test. It was replaced in 2018, due to Congress passing a law banning its use, with the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test.

Personally, having not taken either, I know nothing about these two exams beyond their names.

However, the "Biographical Assessment" test was apparently intended to broaden the potential pool of ATC recruits. It's been my experience that broadening the pool of applicants is a good thing unless it's done artificially.

Regardless, both the "Biographical Assessment" test and the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test are screening tests. I would assume that the people who score the highest are then accepted for the rigorous training associated with becoming an air traffic controller.

So I would have a couple of questions. First, what effect did changing the screening test have on the number that passed the test? Second, how did those who passed the different screening tests do in completing the training? Were any adjustments ever made to the training requirements in order to get more candidates successfully through the training?

Of course I'll never get any answers to these questions but perhaps someone else might.

Regrets About Voting for Trump?

A lot of people are claiming that Trump voters are regretting their choice given the chaos that has ensued and the clown choices for the cabinet. You'll excuse me but I don't buy it.

I don’t see a lot of regret among Trump voters. Most of them seem to be cheering him on and I’m afraid that will be the case for a long time.

The formula seems to be as follows:

(1) anything that goes right is because Trump is a genius and made it go right and 

(2) anything that goes wrong is the fault of (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants and Trump is working very hard to fix the problems caused by (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants.

It's going to be a long four years.

Trump EO Halted

 A federal judge has placed a halt on Trump's EO on birthright citizenship. That didn't take long did it?

Let's Talk Birthright Citizenship

Birthright Citizenship simply refers to the principle that if you are born in the US then you are a US citizen. This has been the traditional interpretation of the 14th Amendment which states:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Despite what much of the media is saying Trump is NOT, at least not yet, trying to eliminate birthright citizenship or defy the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.

The claim, and it has been a conservative claim for at least a decade, is that illegal aliens, and therefore their offspring, are not "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" of the United States and therefore are not automatically granted citizenship.

This seems to contradict a Supreme Court decision in 1898. In the landmark case “U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark” the Supreme Court decided that the 14th Amendment must be interpreted based upon English Common Law and included all native-born children except for those who were: (1) born to foreign rulers or diplomats, (2) born on foreign public ships, or (3) born to enemy forces engaged in hostile occupation of the country's territory.

Note that "born to illegal immigrants" is not listed as an exception. The problem is that Wong Kim Ark's parents were LEGAL immigrants. 

The question was referred to in a footnote in "Plyler v. Doe" in 1982 which interpreted "Wong Kim Ark" as making "no plausible distinction...between legal and illegal resident aliens."

"Plyler v. Doe" may not settle the matter because the footnote is dictum and could arguably be said to be a misinterpretation of "Wong Kim Ark."

Besides, we already know that this court doesn't care about legal precedent or stare decisis. If they can overturn the 50 year old "Roe v. Wade" then why not the 125 year old "Wong Kim Ark?"

Trump's Busy First Day

As promised (threatened?) Trump issued a flurry of executive orders on day one but less than some of his cronies said were going to be issued. It was hardly "shock and awe." Here are the biggies and my opinions on them.

Pardoned 1,500 convicted January 6th rioters.

This is by far the most egregious and disgusting thing that Trump has ever done. There can't be any doubt now who instigated the riot and there can't be any doubt about Trump's disdain for the rule of law.

Declared an emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border.

He did this in his first term as well. Basically it allows him to deploy federal troops to help guard the border and divert defense funds towards building his long promised wall.

This is a big meh. Troops aren't very effective in this role and the wall never seems to get built. I'm still waiting for Mexico to pay for that wall by the way.

Designated "certain international cartels" and organizations, such as Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations and announced plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target them.

Saying you're going to do something and effectively doing it are two different things. I'll reserve judgement on this one but I don't have any particular problem with the idea.

Signed an order withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty.

He withdrew in his first term as well claiming that the treaty was biased against the US. Honestly I haven't heard much about the treaty recently so I'm not sure how effective it is anyway. So also a big meh.

Froze federal hiring, except for members of the military or “positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, or public safety.”

We'll see how long this lasts as people continue to resign and things don't get done. Hiring freezes from the top usually backfire and I expect this one to backfire as well.

Restored a category of federal workers known as Schedule F, which would lack the same job protections enjoyed by career civil servants.

As I've said before this may well be the most dangerous thing. It basically allows replacing civil servants and matter experts with political loyalists. Can you spell Union of Soviet Socialist Republics? This is what the USSR used to do. They put party loyalists in positions of authority for which they had no qualifications.

Halted new federal rules from going into effect before Trump administration appointees can review them.

I don't really have a problem with this one. I would have done the same. Unfortunately I'm not sure the people reviewing these rules have the expertise to review them properly.

Granted top secret security clearances to White House staff without going through traditional vetting procedures.

Given that the Trump team doesn't seem to have properly vetting this staff this strikes me as extremely stupid and dangerous. 

Ended remote work policies and order federal workers back to the office full time.

OK, but I would have left this up to the middle managers who have a better handle on how well remote work is getting things done.

Barred asylum for people newly arriving at the southern border.

Not a big surprise. This sounds reasonable but this is outside my area of expertise.

Moved to end birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment, for the children of undocumented immigrants.

Basically claiming that illegal immigrants and thus their children are not "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States as required in the 14th Amendment. This has been a conservative talking point for at least a decade. This has already been challenged in court. The SCOTUS has rejected similar arguments in the past but what this court will do is anybody's guess.

Terminated DEI programs across the federal government.

I'm not a fan of DEI so I'm all for this.

Recognized two sexes: male and female.

I'm not aware of anyone that said there are more than two. Does it actually refer to genders? I'm not sure this will have any practical effect.

Removed protections for transgender people in federal prisons.

This sounds like it could get someone killed and I honestly don't see the point.

Directed federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices.

I have no problem with this one. I also expect nothing to come of it.

Ordered the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.

The Office of Tariff Affairs & Trade Agreements already does this. This is a big change from his declaration that he would create such an agency. Apparently the moron didn't know it already existed.

Ordered a full review of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security-related tariffs are warranted.

This is also a big retreat from assessing punishing new tariffs on day one. I don't really have a problem with this and it looks like somebody in the administration might actually understand how tariffs work and what they're good for.

Ordered his attorney general not to enforce a law that banned the TikTok site for 75 days to give the administration “an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward.”

I think TikTok is a cesspool that we would all be better of without but I don't really see a problem with taking this direction.

Withdraw from the World Health Organization.

He did this in his first administration. The WHO is just a boogey man for some of his ignorant followers. This is a mistake that may come to bite us in the ass down the road.

Rename Mount Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.

I suspect everyone will ignore his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America but I'm not sure about Denali going back to McKinley. I think this is a petty and stupid move. It's something that I would expect from a petulant child and not a president.

Ensure that states carrying out the death penalty have a “sufficient supply” of lethal injection drugs.

I think we should be banning the death penalty rather than insuring death sentences can be carried out. Again, I don't see the point of this.

Implement the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led cost-cutting initiative.

This one is apparently violating several laws and has already been challenged. But, again, it's impossible to say what this SCOTUS will decide and I'm pretty sure that's where this will end up.

Revoked security clearances for 51 signers of a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.

This is just petty and stupid.

The bottom line is that Trump has again demonstrated that he's a petty, vindictive narcissist that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near any position of authority. But let's see how these things work out in practice before we get too bent out of shape. 

College Football Playoff V

 The championship game has arrived.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl)

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 23, No. 8 Ohio State 34 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia)

Congratulations Buckeyes.