Monday, January 21, 2008

Nevada and South Carolina Part 1

In Nevada it was Hillary Clinton with 51% of the vote leading Barack Obama with 41% of the vote (although Obama got 13 delegates to Clintons 12) and Mitt Romney swamping the Republican field with 51% of the vote, well ahead of the surprising 2nd place Ron Paul with 14% and the third place John McCain with 13%. Mike Huckabee and Fred Thomson were way behind Romney each with around 8% of the vote.

In South Carolina, John McCain squeaked out a victory with 33% of the vote. Huckabee was second with 30%, followed by Thompson with 16% and Romney with 15%.

So who’s winning? I have no idea. On the Republican side Romney looks like he could encounter problems in any state with a fair percentage of Evangelical Christian voters. Now let’s face facts shall we; a Republican candidate without the support of Evangelical Christians is probably doomed.

McCain’s win in South Carolina indicates to me that he is the most viable candidate capable of appealing to all segments of the Republican base and some moderate Independents.

I think Florida will tell the tale. If McCain wins Florida he’ll be hard to head off. If somehow Giuliani manages to win, that will put things back into a jumble again.

For the Democrats, I don’t have a clue. It could still go either way and I don’t see things clearing up until after Super Tuesday if even then.

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