It seems the latest thing around the old student union is the idea of using a "gender neutral" pronoun if you don't know the person's "preferred gender pronoun." Some people even suggest that we let people come up with their own genders.
Now, if we're going to go down this road then we really need to agree on what's sex and what's gender.
According to the American Psychological Association your body determines your sex. Gender refers to the attitudes, feelings, and behaviors that a given culture associates with a person’s physical sex. Obviously Gender is not arbitrary and is very heavily influenced by sex. But it is actually distinct.
As for sex, the APA recognizes three sexes, male, female and intersex.
Intersex consists of a series of physical conditions in which a person is born with a reproductive or sexual anatomy that doesn't seem to fit the typical definitions of female or male. Intersex folks are believed to consist of about 1,7% of the population. In other words, about as prevalent as people with red hair.
Then we get to Transgender. Apparently, the term covers a number of non-conforming psychological cases the best known of which are Transsexuals who feel their gender doesn't match their sex. But apparently there are other definitions which, to be honest, I don't really understand. The famous 51 or 58 or 71, depending upon who you ask, gender options that Facebook provides appear to contain lots of different ways of saying the same thing. For instance Cis Female, Cis Woman, Cisgender Female and Cisgender Woman all mean the same thing; a female who has a feminine gender identity.
The latest estimates places the number of transgenders at 0.6% of the population.or about double the previous estimate of 0.3%. The 0.6% number came from a Williams Institute analysis (http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/How-Many-Adults-Identify-as-Transgender-in-the-United-States.pdf)
Now as I understand it both intersex and transgender types may prefer gender neutral pronouns. I haven't asked all of them so I can't say for sure.
Assuming the estimates are correct that would be about 2.3% of the population. According to Pew Research that's greater than the number of Muslims (0.6%), the number of Mormons (1.6%), the number of Hindus (0.7%), the number of Buddhists (0.7%) and the number of Jews (1.9%) in the US so it's not really a minuscule number.
Does it seem a little silly? Sure, but I remember people saying the same thing about Ms. back in the 1960s and now it's pretty much standard usage in the business world.
Maybe there's a happy medium which isn't completely crazy. The idea of "choose your own pronoun" is obviously nuts but I don't see much of a problem with introducing gender neutral pronouns. If nothing else it will keep me from grinding my teeth when someone uses "she" when the sex is unknown instead of "he" (or they) which are (or were) the traditionally accepted usage in that case.
Saturday, December 24, 2016
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Thoughts on Trump
Here's the fundamental problem. Trump doesn't take rejection well and he takes being outsmarted by someone even worse. His single biggest weak point is that he's too conceited to listen to the experts and that includes Intelligence experts. Putin is smarter than Trump and I think he has a good handle on Trump's personality foibles.
The scenario I see is Putin leading Trump around by his nose while Trump remains convinced that he's actually in control. He will hold onto onto that opinion, despite what the Intelligence community is telling him, until it becomes impossible for even him to continue lying to himself. When that day comes it's going to get terribly scary.
The basic problem with just about everything Trump has "promised," is that while many are laudable objectives, most have associated with them high risk implementations which could go drastically wrong. I suppose we shall see what we shall see but:
- There's isn't going to be a wall. It's too expensive and too controversial.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
College Football Poll Final
No big upsets but as usual some perplexing changes. The final list.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
Friday, December 02, 2016
College Football Poll week 13
The big game was Michigan at Ohio State. It was a nail biter with OSU winning in double overtime thanks to "the spot." On 4th and one in the second overtime OSU QB J.T. Barrett made the 1st down by half an eyelash. On the next play Curtis Samuel took it 15 yards to win it.
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
College Football Poll Week 12
The standings after week 12.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
Monday, November 21, 2016
College Football Poll 2016
Moving on to more entertaining topics, the College Football playoff polling has begun. In fact it began two weeks ago so I'll have to catch up.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
Twelve Days Later
OK, so twelve days have passed since the election and I'm sort of standing and leaning against a convenient wall watching the shrapnel fly around.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
May you live in Interesting Times.
That's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Election Night
Well, here we go.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
11:30 EST
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Thoughts before the Plunge
It's pushing 6 PM. My wife and I voted this morning about 9 AM. She was voter #80; I was voter #81. My oldest daughter went before she went to work right as the polls opened. She was voter #1.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Election 2016 IX Part B
For everyone laughing at my 270-268 Trump electoral victory I might point out that Real Clear Politics has it 272-266 Clinton.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
Election 2016 IX
Well, here we are on the eve of the election. I've been silent for two weeks primarily because I have been skeptical about just about everything and more than a little disgusted with both campaigns and both candidates.
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
Monday, October 24, 2016
Election 2016 VIII
It's been 25 days since Election 2016 VII because I no longer trust the polls or anything else.
I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.
On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.
For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.
Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.
I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?
You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.
If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.
I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.
No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.
The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.
I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.
Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.
Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.
I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.
On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.
For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.
Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.
I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?
You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.
If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.
I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.
No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.
The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.
I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.
Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.
Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Good Grief!
This just keeps getting "better and better"...NOT!
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Sunday, October 09, 2016
The Second Debate
Given the rapidly unraveling of the Trump campaign all Clinton really needs to do tonight is not lose.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
Trump's Locker Room Language Video
A video has surfaced in which The Donald expresses opinions rarely heard outside of Middle School locker rooms or good old boy drunken binges.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Kaepernick's Protest Spills over into College Football
A number of college players and at least one marching band have decided to join in Colin Kaepernick's protest by kneeling during the national anthem. Some of the band members refused to play.
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Election 2016 VII
OK, I admit it, I got bored doing these. I started too early and the posts were too complicated. I'll be doing these less frequently until we get closer to the election. I've also switched to the 4-way RCP average including Johnson and Stein.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Polygamy? Well, Sort of.
The diversity in this country is unreal. This is what frightens many conservatives. This is what frightens Trump supporters. It's not the only reason Trumpettes support the Drumpf but it's one of them.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
The 2016 NFL Season has Begun!
Oh yeah, the insanity has started.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
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