Trump Wins New Hampshire

Trump won New Hampshire but not by that big a margin. Nikki Haley came in second and Ron DeSantis has now dropped out.

Unless he is kidnapped by space aliens Trump will be the GOP nominee. Can you still run for president if you're in jail?

Trump's strategy has always been to delay the various criminal trials that he's facing until after the 2024 election and that strategy appears to be working.

Trump Wins Iowa

 Well, Trump had an overwhelming victory in the Iowa caucuses. No real surprise there.

His opposition for the GOP nomination is down to Nikki Halley and Ron DeSantis. Anyone want to take bets on their chances of heading him off?

Trump's Chances in 2024

Too many people seem to think that Trump's chances are uphill in the 2024 election but I disagree.

Writing Trump off is being too rational and logical. In a sane world I would agree 100%. Unfortunately I’m not sure that we live in a sane world at the moment. 

I have three concerns that lead me to doubt the battle is that uphill. 

The first is that perceptions mean more than reality and far too many people seem to believe that the economy is in worse shape than it is. The media isn’t helping here by constantly pounding the drum of doom for no reason. 

The second is that the southern border is a disaster and refugees being shipped all over the country is a failure in leadership. The federal government should be stepping up to help alleviate the crises in New York and Chicago. How it should do that is beyond my pay grade but that’s why they get the big bucks. 

The third is that Democrats are so talented at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It seems every day there is a news story about a Democrat or Democratic led city doing something that is almost guaranteed to piss people off. Examples include: 

* The mayor of Boston giving a persons of color only Christmas gathering. 

* The mayor of Chicago saying that reparations are the way to fight crime. 

* AOC excusing flash mobs looting stores by saying they’re trying to feed their families. 

* Pittsburgh paying a California firm $50k to show teachers why math is racist and how to take “white supremacy” out of the math classroom. 

This type of stuff appeals to emptions and emotions are often what determines elections. Luckily the memory of the electorate is short so these things should be soon forgotten but they keep doing stuff like this.

Modern Cost of Home Alone Groceries

 During the Christmas season a number of places were comparing the cost of Kevin's shopping spree in "Home Alone" to current prices and coming up with some really big numbers. The Daily Mail came up with $68.99 for Kevin's $20 worth of items in 1990 which sounded a bit high to me.

I checked with Stop & Shop online in New Jersey and the total came out to $46.41. Of course one of the variables is size which isn't specified for all items. I included 8 rolls of toilet paper, 45.5 ounces of laundry detergent, 60 dryer sheets and a pack of 50 army men. If we go to 105 oz of detergent and 120 dryer sheets it goes up to $54.86 but I don't think the detergent was that big or he had 8 rolls of toilet paper. 

The other side of the coin is that median household income in 1990 was $30,636. In 2022 it was $74,580 which represented a drop due to Covid because in 2020 it was $76,330. 

 I will also say that Stop & Shop online is typically more expensive for non perishable items such as laundry detergent and toilet paper than say Walmart. The 8 rolls of toilet paper was $8.59 but I can get 9 rolls of the same brand at Walmart for $6.36. The 105 oz laundry detergent was $9.48 at Walmart rather than $10.24. The 120 dryer sheets were $4.92 rather than $5.99. So buying the paper goods and detergent at Walmart in even the larger sizes would only be $50.88 or an increase of 2.56 times. 

And the really good news is if you spend $35 Walmart delivers, for free, right to your door. So the prices increased between 2.34 times and 2.77 times according to the numbers I found and median household income increased by about 2.43 times. So this seems pretty close to right especially since I don't think Kevin bought the larger sizes. 

 An increase to $68.99 would be a big issue because that would be an increase of 3.48 times compared to a household median income increase of 2.43 times. My advice to the Daily Mail is find a new place to shop.