Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Election Night

Well, here we go.

7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3

Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.

Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.

If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.

8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3

Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.

8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44

Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.

Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.

9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48

Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.

This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.

9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104

Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.

Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.

10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104

Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.

Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.

Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.

Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.

10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109

Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.

Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.

This is pretty screwed up.

I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.

11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131

Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.

As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.

Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.

11:30 EST
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197

Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.

Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.

12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209

Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.

Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.

I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.

Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.

In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.

Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.

I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.

Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.

12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209

Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes

Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

The question for me is when do I pack it in?

OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.

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