Monday, November 05, 2012

Thoughts on the Eve of Election 2012

I had some optimism four years ago. I don’t have any of that today.

From what I can see the Republicans will hold the House, the Democrats should hold the Senate and, even if they don’t, neither party can achieve a filibuster proof majority.

As for the presidential race, Obama appears to have come back a bit and should be considered the favorite but a Romney victory wouldn’t shock me. It’s going to be close. It’s not even clear it will be resolved Tuesday. It may well extend into Wednesday and perhaps beyond.

The problem is no matter who wins, I don’t see any resolution to the current gridlock in Washington. Perhaps Obama being in his last term might loosen things up and, then again, it may not.

The country is polarized and in many cases for the wrong reasons and often based upon inaccurate information. I don’t see that changing any time soon.

On the gay marriage front there are four major contests. In Maine they’re trying to restore gay marriage and in Maryland and Washington they’re trying to defend it. It Minnesota they’re trying to get an amendment to the state constitution declaring marriage as between one man and one woman approved.

The polls on all of these questions are all over the map possibly because different pollsters ask the question different ways. I am cautiously optimistic that gay marriage will win in two of Maine, Maryland and Washington. It doesn’t look good in Minnesota so a 2-2 split could be the result.

Losses in all four places would be an unmitigated disaster. Victory in all four places would change the conversation permanently. Four wins is highly unlikely but I can dream.

In New Jersey Bob Menendez, a Democrat, should win re-election to the senate. In my home district Scott Garrett, a Republican, should win re-election easily.

Of course none of this helps me find any gasoline.

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