So where are we in this election?

Damn good question. Less than four weeks until election day and, as far as I can see, this thing is still a toss-up. There are an awful lot of swing states still hanging by a thread and I think McCain would be making a massive mistake to go down and dirty like some of the far right whackos in his party are urging him to do.

I thought Obama won the second debate handily. Allow me to suggest that media attempts to level out the result are more aimed at keeping the ratings and interest level up than they are at providing an honest appraisal.

I’m seeing signs of panic in the Republican camp that I believe are totally unfounded. The simple fact is that North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are all still very much in play for three reasons.

The first reason is that all of these states have at least 10% undecided and voters who choose late are more likely to go with the “safer” choice. Putting Sarah Palin aside, I suspect that most people still view McCain as the “safer” choice. I suspect that Palin is going to hurt McCain here if he doesn’t muzzle her. Suddenly embarking upon what could be viewed as a personnel vendetta would definitely hurt him here.

The second reason is, despite what I’m hearing from academia, we still can’t be sure we’re not going to see a significant “Bradley effect.” Named for Tom Bradley, who ran for governor of California back in the 1980’s, the Bradley affect occurs when people tell pollsters what they think they should say, or what they think the pollster wants to hear, with regards to a black candidate and then change their mind, or let their true colors show, when they enter the privacy of the voting booth.

Figures lie and liars figure and you can use statistics to argue almost anything position if you’re selective enough and spin it right. Same folks claim the Bradley effect is real and is going to be a factor, some say it’s a phenomenon of an America that no longer exists, some say the effect never existed in the first place and some are even claiming that more likely is what is being dubbed an Obama effect going the other way because pollsters aren’t properly taking into account younger voters that tend to be more cell phone than land line oriented.

Personally I think the effect is real and is going to be a factor. I can almost guarantee you it will be a factor in the states listed above. What I don’t know is how big a factor.

The third reason is what I can only call the “buyer’s remorse” effect. For whatever reason, things tend to tighten in the last month of the campaign because folks who have reached a tentative decision to vote for the leading candidate start worrying if they’re making a mistake. That leads to paying more attention to what the opposing candidate is saying. Invariable that leads to some conversions. This doesn’t happen on the other side because folks figure their candidate is going to lose anyway.

Pulling against this would be the so-called “bandwagon effect” where folks decide to go with “the winner” simply because he’s winning. Things are way too close for this to be much of a factor in my opinion.

So there are potentially three things pulling in McCain’s direction, therefore it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it’s a stunned McCain giving the victory speech in the wee hours of November 5th while Obama is wondering what the hell happened.

Obviously, I hope I’m completely wrong about this but I doubt it. Even if the election were held today I don’t think the poll numbers would hold up and I expect them to tighten between now and election day assuming nothing dramatic occurs.