Less then 2 Weeks to Go

We’re now officially less than 2 weeks to the Presidential election and the focus has squarely shifted to the electoral math.

Pew Research upset the apple cart yesterday by releasing a large sample poll (over 2,400) showing Obama with a whopping 14 point lead. Then the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll followed up on that last night by releasing figures that showed a 10 point Obama lead.

To further confuse the issue, a number of organizations now believe that some polls may have been understating Obama’s numbers due to the phenomenon of cell phone only households. Cell phone only households are overwhelmingly young voters and young voters favor Obama by a ginormous 67% to 27% margin. This wouldn’t apply to Pew Research though as they claim to be taking the cell phone only households into account. We shall see about this one when the actual results are counted. This is too good to be true and if it seems to good to be true...

Of course none of this matters one iota. What matters is the electoral math. Strange as it sounds Obama could, in theory, win the popular vote by 10 points and still loose the election. Let us not forget that Al Gore won the popular vote by 543,000 votes and we still ended up stuck with George Bush.

On the electoral side things don’t look nearly as flush. CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign is pulling out of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado to focus on Pennsylvania. As I pointed out last week this is a very risky approach. Current polls have McCain trailing in Pennsylvania by 51.7% to 40.7%. Still, that’s better than last Thursday when I reported him trailing by 53.6% to 40%.

McCain apparently also believes that he has an ace up his sleeve in New Hampshire and the last I heard he hasn’t yet conceded in Wisconsin. I have to ask the question. What does this man know that the rest of us don’t know?

According to the polls McCain trails in New Hampshire by 52.2% to 42.8% and in Wisconsin by 52.2% to 40.8%. What the hell? Could the public polls really be that wrong?

The McCain campaign also appears to feel that Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri are safe and are focusing primarily on Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. In all of these states the candidates are within 3 points of each other with the exception of Pennsylvania as noted above and Virginia where Obama is reported ahead 52.8% to 44.8%.

Why is this man smiling especially considering that the demographics, the money and the plunging popularity of the callow and shrill partisan, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch called Palin, are all working against him?

If the parties were reversed and it was the Democratic candidate facing these kinds of numbers we all would be declaring it over except for the punishing of the innocent so WTF is going on?

Easy, it’s the Democrats stupid and they are masters at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Besides, the election always tightens near the end and I'm not sure why this race should be any different. Personally I think McCain is relying on “people returning to their roots” between now and pulling the lever. That’s a euphemism for, when push comes to shove, white people aren’t going to vote for a black man. I wish I could say with conviction that this is not going to happen. The shadow of Tom Bradley still lingers.

Either that or the Republicans have gotten control of the voting machines in the key states.

I can’t discount that possibility either. I still believe that Obama needs Pennsylvania. But if somehow McCain pulls out New Hampshire, that sets up the possibility of an electoral vote tie.

In that case it goes to the House of Representatives where each state would get one vote and 26 votes would be needed to win. It would be the newly elected congress that votes so it's not 100% certain what that would mean. At the moment the Democrats have a majority in exactly 26 states and might pick up more but who knows?

If no one gets 26 states then the Vice President, selected by majority vote in the senate, would become acting President. The Democrats should have a majority in the Senate so that means Joe Biden should win.

If through some weird warping of space (or the Republicans manage to sabotage the Senate voting machines somehow even though the Senate doesn't have voting machines) and the Senate doesn’t choose a Vice President, then the Speaker of the House who, baring the second coming, should be Nancy Pelosi, would become President.

Bottom line, a tie means a Democratic president. Most likely Barack Obama (like about 99.9% probability), but in an oddball situation could actually turn out to be Joe Biden or Nancy Pelosi.

Either that or we'll get Jesus making his grand entrance to judge the sheep and the goats.