The Midterm Stretch IV

I'm changing the format. I'm dropping the New York Governor's race because that looks like a done deal. I'm just going to list the current numbers in the Senate races and forget about highlighting changes. I'm going to look at all the competitive Senate races.

I don't know what to believe any more. Most pollsters are doubling down on a big Dem night, although some have started to hedge their bets. More than a few people are taking the position that the polls are flawed and there's going to be a big surprise on November 3rd. I still think Texas, Alaska and Maine will go to the GOP.

I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 227, GOP - 183, Tossups - 25

Polymarket has it Dems - 235, GOP - 200

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 44, Tossups - 10

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS, NE, SC

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, ME, AK

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, AK, OH, TX, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Individual Senate Races

I'm going to include here Real Clear Politics (RCP), Nate Silver (NS), FiftyPlusOne (FP1) and Polymarket (PM). 

Minnesota

RCP - Flannagan (D) - 46.6%, Tafoya (R) - 43.2%

NS -  Flannagan (D) - 48.0%, Tafoya (R) - 43.3%

FP1 - Flannagan (D) - 84%, Tafoya (R) - 16%

PM - Flannagan (D) - 83%, Tafoya (R) - 18%

New Hampshire

RCP - Pappas (D) - 46.6%, Sununu (R) - 43.2%

NS - Pappas (D) - 49.7%, Sununu (R) - 42.4%

FP1 - Pappas (D) - 92%, Sununu (R) - 8%

PM - Pappas (D) - 90%, Sununu (R) - 11%

Texas

RCP - Talarico (D) - 48.4%, Paxton (R) - 46.9%

NS - Talarico (D) - 48.7%, Paxton (R) - 46.3%

FP1 - Talarico (D) - 59%, Paxton (R) - 41%

PM - Talarico (D) - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Alaska

RCP - Peltola (D) - 49.0%, Sullivan (R) - 48.2%

NS - Peltola (D) - 47.9%, Sullivan (R) - 44.1%

FP1 - Peltola (D) - 66%, Sullivan (R) - 34%

PM - Peltola (D) - 74%, Sullivan (R) - 27%

Ohio

RCP - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

NS - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

FP1 - Brown (D) - 63%, Husted (R) - 37%

PM - Brown (D) - 69%, Husted (R) - 33%

Michigan

RCP - El-Sayed (D) - 47.9%, Rogers (R) - 46.0%

NS - El-Sayed (D) - 48.3%, Rogers (R) - 45.5%

FP1 - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 34%

PM - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 35%

Maine

RCP - Jackson (D) - 48.9%, Collins (R) - 47.5%

NS - Jackson (D) - 49.3%, Collins (R) - 47.1%

FP1 - Jackson (D) - 69%, Collins (R) - 31%

PM - Jackson (D) - 57%, Collins (R) - 43%

This is all very close. If you assume just a 3 point GOP under count, then they will win Texas, Alaska and Maine which is what I've been saying all along. Looks like they might take Michigan as well.