Air India Flight 171

On June 12th, 2025, Air India flight 171 took off from Ahmedabad India enroute to London England with 230 passengers and 12 crew aboard. About 32 seconds into the flight the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner went down just beyond the end of the runway into some building.

One person, in seat 11A, literally walked away from the crash. The other 241 people on board were killed along with 19 people on the ground.

The tragedy was caught on multiple videos which, following the crash, were dissected in an attempt to determine what may have gone wrong. One clear clue was that the Ram Air Turbine (RAT) had deployed which indicated a possible loss of power. There was also some speculation about the flaps being in the wrong position.

The pilots were both seasoned fliers. The Captain was Sumeet Sabharwal, 56, who had logged approximately 15,600 flight hours, including nearly 8,600 hours on the Boeing 787. The first officer, Clive Kunder, 32, had around 3,400 flight hours, with around 1,100 hours on the Boeing 787. 

Now it's been a long time since my FAA days but I figured I would wait for the preliminary report from the Indian government because speculating.

Now the preliminary report has been released and perhaps raises more questions than it answers. 

First the What

The cause of the crash was the loss of power in both engines. The flaps were in the proper position and the RAT had indeed been deployed in response to the loss of engine power. The preliminary report listed the following sequence of events from the flight recorder:

08:07:33 UTC - Take-off clearance was issued

08:07:37 UTC - The aircraft started rolling.

08:08:33 UTC - The aircraft hit decision speed V1 and achieved 153 kts.

08:08:35 UTC - The Vr speed of 155 kts was achieved.

08:08:39 UTC - The aircraft lifted off.

08:08:42 UTC - The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots.

Then the following quotes are in the report:

"The Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec."

"The Engine N1 and N2 began to decrease from their take-off values as the fuel supply to the engines was cut off."

"In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff.

The other pilot responded that he did not do so."

"The aircraft started to lose altitude before crossing the airport perimeter wall."

"As per the EAFR data both engines N2 values passed below minimum idle speed, and the RAT hydraulic pump began supplying hydraulic power at about 08:08:47 UTC."

"As per the EAFR, the Engine 1 fuel cutoff switch transitioned from CUTOFF to RUN at about 08:08:52 UTC."

"The APU Inlet Door began opening at about 08:08:54 UTC, consistent with the APU Auto Start logic."

"Thereafter at 08:08:56 UTC the Engine 2 fuel cutoff switch also transitions from CUTOFF to RUN."

"Engine 1’s core deceleration stopped, reversed and started to progress to recovery."

"Engine 2 was able to relight but could not arrest core speed deceleration and re-introduced fuel repeatedly to increase core speed acceleration and recovery."

"The EAFR recording stopped at 08:09:11 UTC"

"At about 08:09:05 UTC, one of the pilots transmitted “MAYDAY MAYDAY MAYDAY”.

So, my summary would be:

(1) Both fuel cutoff switches went from run to cutoff in the space of about 1 second.

(2) One pilot (who is not identified in the report) asked the other why he cutoff the fuel and the other pilot replied that he didn't.

(3) About 10 seconds later fuel was restored to engine 1 which began its recovery sequence.

(4) About 4 second later fuel was restored to engine 2 which also began its recovery sequence.

(5) Engine 1 started to recovery but engine 2 was unable to stop deceleration.

The bottom line seems to be that the aircraft was too close to the ground to recover from the fuel cutoff to both engines and crashed.

Now the Why

The preliminary report is clearly incomplete and has led to a host of speculation and additional questions. First the questions.

#1 - Which pilot asked the question about the cutoff and which denied he had done it?

#2 - Were both pilots truly perplexed about the fuel cutoff or was one faking it.

#3 - To turn the fuel switch to cutoff, you have to lift the spring loaded switch, move it and then drop it down. Can a human do that in 1 second or is the time interval in the report wrong?

#4 - Why wait 10 second and then another 4 second to restore fuel to the engines?

I have seen three hypotheses about what happened.

Hypothesis #1 - One person was talking about a chip that, if it failed, could cause fuel to be cutoff to both engines.

This would explain the short time interval between switch changes and the confusion of the pilots. It might also explain the 10 second delay because the switches might appear to still be in the ON position.

I don't buy this one for three reasons. He didn't identify the mysterious chip. No engineer in his right mind would approve a design where a single chip failure could cut off fuel to both engines. If such a chip failed, then how did they restart the engines?

Hypothesis #2 - From the report:

"The FAA issued Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) No. NM-18-33 on December 17, 2018, regarding the potential disengagement of the fuel control switch locking feature."

"The airworthiness concern was not considered an unsafe condition that would warrant airworthiness directive (AD) by the FAA."

From SAIB No. NM-18-33:

"The fuel control switch has a locking feature to prevent inadvertent operation that could result in unintended switch movement between the fuel supply and fuel cutoff positions. In order to move the switch from one position to the other under the condition where the locking feature is engaged, it is necessary for the pilot to lift the switch up while transitioning the switch position. If the locking feature is disengaged, the switch can be moved between the two positions without lifting the switch during transition, and the switch would be exposed to the potential of inadvertent operation."

One has to wonder why this was not considered an "unsafe condition?" Of course one also has to wonder why no one had noticed this on this aircraft if the locking mechanism was indeed disengaged? The locks would have been disengaged on previous flights and pilots would certainly have noticed the problem.

So could vibrations during takeoff cause both switches to transition from ON to CUTOFF? That seems unlikely, but so does a human moving both switches in one second if the spring lock is engaged. What about if it's not engaged?

This might resolve the short timeframe between switches changing and the confusion of the pilots but I don't see them waiting 10 seconds to resolve the situation.

Hypothesis #3 - One of the pilot purposely moved the switches and caused the aircraft to crash.

The FO was reportedly flying the plane and both hands would be engaged with the stick and the thruster. Besides, if he wanted to crash the plane he probably could have done so without needing to shut off the fuel. Although he might have has reasons to make the reason for the crash less obvious.

That leaves the Captain. But WHY?

The other mystery is why the 10 second gap between the fuel being cut off and the attempt to restart the engines. I can only think of two reasons, conflict or confusion.

The conflict would be the result of one pilot trying to restore fuel flow and the other trying to stop him.

As for the confusion, I wonder if there is any way in pluperfect hell, other than the chip failure idea, that fuel could have been cut off to both engines, triggering the alarms, even though the switches remained in the ON position. That might have required the switches to be turned to CUTOFF and then back to ON. I would certainly has paused a few seconds if the alarms and the switches were telling different stories.

What do I think

As I said I find Hypothesis #1 highly implausible and I'm not happy with #2 and #3 either. Without a lot more evidence I refuse to believe that either pilot would do such a thing. Perhaps when more information is available, a fourth hypothesis will appear.

Summary Thoughts on Birthright Citizenship

I see a lot of people saying that the language of the 14th Amendment is clear. I have to admit that I was once in that crowd but now I'm not so sure it's all that clear.

The issue is the clause "subject to the jurisdiction thereof." 

What exactly does that mean? In 1898, the SCOTUS in US v. Wong Kim Ark ruled that the phrase "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" included all native-born children except for those who were: (1) born to foreign rulers or diplomats, (2) born on foreign public ships, or (3) born to enemy forces engaged in hostile occupation of the country's territory.

Elk v. Wilkins from 1884 was also still in effect, and would be until 1924, in which the Supreme Court found that Native Americans were not citizens by birth under the Fourteenth Amendment.

Chinese were a special case because the Chinese Exclusion Act, which prohibited Chinese from entering the country or being naturalized, was still in effect. However Chinese that were already in the country prior to the Exclusion Act were legally permitted to stay and Wong's parents had been in the country since before the Exclusion Act was passed. Because they were legally permitted to stay, the court ruled that they were "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" of the United States.

Do we all see the problem here? Illegal immigrants are arguably not legally "permitted to stay" and this might be enough of a hook for the SCOTUS to further limit birthright citizenship.

I also think a good case can be made that temporary visitors owe allegiance to their country of origin and therefore are not "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" of the United States.

Birthright Citizenship Discussion

I left a comment on a video which summarized the Birthright Citizenship controversy and got a response from someone else that I thought was interesting enough to capture.

Actually, that was a pretty good summary. However, you left out two sort of important things. First, the 14th Amendment extents citizenship to "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof..." Second, the SCOTUS in Wong Kim Ark ruled that the phrase "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" included all native-born children except for those who were: (1) born to foreign rulers or diplomats, (2) born on foreign public ships, or (3) born to enemy forces engaged in hostile occupation of the country's territory.

It's that same phrase "subject to the jurisdiction thereof," that Trump and company are claiming excludes illegal immigrants and temporary visitors.  In a footnote in "Plyler v. Doe" in 1982 the court interpreted "Wong Kim Ark" as making "no plausible distinction...between legal and illegal resident aliens."

So the court would have to ignore or overturn two previous court opinions in order to declare that birthright citizenship doesn't apply to illegal immigrants. Of course the court may very well do that. I suspect that the idea that birthright citizenship extends to temporary visitors is on much shakier ground and I would be astounded if the court didn't rule that it doesn't apply to them.

This was the reply to my comment.

True the WKA did interpret subject to the jurisdiction to  include all except for those groups . However the court stated " so long as they are permitted by the US government to be here and that they had broken no laws here.

Elk v Wilkins was after WKA which showed allegiance is required to be subject to the jurisdiction. 

The slaughterhouse case excluded all children of foreigners from being subject to the jurisdiction of. 

Plyler v Doe was about jurisdiction within the territory of a state regarding equal protection (rights and privileges ) Nothing to do with citizenship like the other cases.

Then, my reply to the reply.

The quote from Wong refers to Wong's parents because at the time the Chinese exclusion act was still in effect.

The bottom line in Wong comes a little later:

"The fact, therefore, that acts of congress or treaties have not permitted Chinese persons born out of this country to become citizens by naturalization, cannot exclude Chinese persons born in this country from the operation of the broad and clear words of the constitution: 'All persons born in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.'"

Elk v. Wilkins was in 1884 so it was prior to Wong in 1898. It also addresses Native American citizenship questions which was a whole different can of worms in the 19th century.

The Slaughterhouse Cases provided a very narrow interpretation of the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause which has effectively been overridden by the Court's adoption of the Incorporation Doctrine.

You're correct that Plyler is not about citizenship. However it references Wong and makes the observation that Wong did not differentiate between legal and illegal immigrants.

Trump's Agenda

 We're six month into 2025 and the Trump agenda appears to be taking hold. True, his parade was a joke which was sort of heartwarming to see but:

(1) Iran and Israel have a ceasefire which they might even keep. If you don't think Trump's attack on Iran, even if they didn't completely destroy the targets,  had anything to do with that you're probably mistaken. 

(2) The Stock Market has recovered from its crash in the early part of the year. Whether it won't crash again as the effects of Trump's economic policies take hold remains to be seen. 

(3) Trump is getting trade agreements that seem advantageous. Of course only time will tell if they actually are. 

(4) The Big Really Fucking Awful Bill has passed the Senate and is on the cusp of passing the House. 

(5) The deportations are a mixed bag. We can't get the crops picked or planted but we are getting rid of a fair number of people that we can do without. 

(6) DEI is dead. 

(7) It's beginning to look like having athletes that went through puberty as males competing against athletes that went through puberty as females is about to end.

Whether you agree with, or are horrified at, his agenda I think we have to recognize that Trump has been rather successful at getting it implemented even if his parade was a flop. On the bright side, at least he hasn't invaded Greenland or Panama.

SCOTUS Says No Nationwide Injunctions

In a case related to the Birthright Citizenship question the SCOTUS has ruled that federal courts do not have the authority to issue nationwide injunctions.

The question was triggered by Trump's Executive Orders excluding children born to illegal immigrants and temporary visitors from birthright citizenship.

But this has vexed several presidents both Democrat and Republican because it leads to "judge shopping." This is the art of getting your case heard by a federal judge sympathetic to your position and then getting that decision imposed on the whole country.

This is essentially what happened with the abortion drug mifepristone a few years back before the SCOTUS overruled the restriction.

So what exactly does this mean for Birthright Citizenship? Probably not a whole lot. The order won't go into effect for 30 days and that's plenty of time to file additional lawsuits, including a class action suit, against the EOs.

The SCOTUS really needs to get off its rear end and rule on whether "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" excludes illegal immigrants and temporary visitors from Birthright Citizenship.

Personally I don't think it should exclude illegals because they're here pretty much on a permanent basis but I don't think it should apply to temporary visitors.

Of course what I think doesn't matter. What matters is what the court thinks and I expect it to exclude both when it gets around to deciding.

The Tariffs and Tariff Threats

Trump's tariff strategy actually seems to be working. Countries seem anxious to negotiate trade deals in order to maintain access to the US marketplace.

Of course willing to negotiate and coming to a deal are not the same thing but it seems to be moving in the right direction.

The Fed is still concerned about possible tariff fueled inflation so a rate cut in July looks up in the air but not completely off the table. Trump has made it clear that he will replace Jerome Powell as fed chairman when his term expires.

The stock market has sort of almost recovered from the series of shocks it experienced but is still very volatile and jumpy.

Iran-Israeli Ceasefire

Trump appears to have managed a fragile, but so far reasonably stable, ceasefire between Iran and Israel. How long that will hold up is up in the air.

In the meantime the Pentagon now says that the attack on Iranian nuclear sites wasn't a complete success and may have only delayed the Iranian nuclear program by 6-9 months.

Regardless, it appears to have gotten the Iranians to the negotiating table.

Iran Strikes Back

Iran has attacked a US military base in Qatar. The Qatari say that no damage was done and they sound kind of pissed. They have said they reserve the right to respond. So the conflict potentially spreads.

My question is why do we have a military base in Qatar?

Trump Bombs Iran

Last night Donald Trump announced that the US has bombed three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. 

Given that the site at Fordo was deep underground the US usedGBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) designed to penetrate and explode underground. Tomahawk missiles were apparently employed to attack the other sites.

I look at this from two angles. First, how sane was this move and second, how effective was it in destroying Iran's nuclear capability.

I think this was completely INSANE and a move that only an ignorant president with ignorant advisors would undertake. The country is also tired of military adventures in the Middle East.

When challenged about this J.D. Vance essentially said that all the past presidents that got involved in the Middle East were dumb and now there's a genius in the White House that knows what needs to be done. Then they wonder why we say it's a cult.

As for its effectiveness, last night Trump claimed a complete success. The Iranians claim they evacuated these facilities a while back and their nuclear capability has not been set back.

This morning, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, reiterated the complete success claim but when the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, was asked whether any nuclear capability remained, he responded that the battle damage assessment (BDA) was still ongoing and it was too early to say.

The post attack satellite photos that I saw from the BBC showed a bunch of big holes but not obvious total destruction at Fordo. But that's what you would expect with these bombs. They're designed to penetrate and explode deep underground.

So now what? Iran has declared that it will close the Strait of Hormuz through which an enormous amount of the world's oil passes. There are three US carrier groups in the region so It's not clear to me how they think they're going to accomplish that. Regardless the Stock Market should be a major disaster tomorrow.

Iran can't just do nothing so I suppose we will have to wait and see.

One last thing, Trump is a fucking idiot,

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Clair Obscur Expedition 33 is a video game that is something of a phenomenon at the moment not the least of which because it was developed by a small studio and is being sold for a reasonable $49.99. A number of sites are declaring it a shoo-in for Game of the Year (GOTY).

I just finished the game after 60 hours. Honestly, near the end I just wanted to get it over with to see how the story ended. I see no reason to play it again. I find this lack of replay value a definite negative. Hell, I even played Avowed three times and that took a lot of endurance.

It has a number of very good things about it. The music is haunting, the graphics are surreal, the story is clever and the voice acting is top notch but it's not a good game. The game play is repetitive and downright boring after a while. The boss battles are too long for a game that crashes with some frequency. I find the real time dodge and parry approach a problem. This is supposed to be a turn based game but the deeper you get into it the more your party's survival depends upon your reflexes and remembering what sequence of attacks your current enemy uses. The bottom line is that It's basically a story interrupted by combat. If you win the combat the story continues. If you lose the combat, you go back, get stronger and try again. You then rinse and repeat until you win the combat and the story can continue.

I think it's better than a lot of the stuff that has been published recently and I would certainly recommend it to people who like story based games. But GOTY? Perhaps, because the competition is pretty lackluster at the moment.

So I decided that I wanted a Copy of my College Transcript

Why you ask? Who the hell knows? It just popped into my head one day. So I found this website called Parchment who would contact your school, request the transcript and send it wherever you wanted. The second part was easy because I wanted it.

Still, $9.30 sounded like a bargain if they did all the contacting of the college. So I made an account, typed in my information and indicated that I had graduated from Hunter College of the City University of New York in June of 1969.

A day or two later I got an e-mail from Hunter saying that they couldn't locate my records. OK, that was interesting. They wanted to know if my name changed and asked me to verify the dates. Well, the dates were 1965 to 1969. As for my name, well there a couple of possibilities. Was I using my middle name, middle initial or maybe even a Jr?

So I checked my diploma. Oops, much to my surprise my diploma actually said Lehman College, Formerly Hunter College in the Bronx.

Now I always thought I had been the last graduating class from Hunter College at the Bronx campus and my wife had been the first graduating class from Lehman College. Apparently that was not correct.

So I apologized to Hunter and canceled my order with Parchment. They gave me back my $9.30.

I decided the hell with it but that itch reappeared about two weeks later and I added Lehman College to my Parchment account, paid my $9.30, and put in a request from them.

I got crickets. Finally I looked at my Parchment account and it said that Lehman couldn't locate my records either. I did go to college; I have a diploma and everything. The problem was Parchment insisted that I should get an e-mail from Lehman and I hadn't.

I filled out another problem report from Parchment and they sent me an e-mail essentially saying that I should contact Lehman directly. Since the whole idea of going through Parchment was to avoid having to do that, I checked off the option that said I was no longer interested. I figured they could keep the $9.30 this time.

About two weeks later I get an e-mail from Parchment that Lehman had provided my transcript and I had 30 days to download it which I promptly did.

In reviewing the transcript it became apparent that memories aren't always accurate. For instance, I swore that I got an A in Advanced Calculus but I only got a B. There were also a couple of courses that I had absolutely no memory of taking.

The other interesting thing was I clearly remembered having gotten an Artium Baccalaureatus (AB) degree rather than a Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree although they are essentially the same. Yet, my diploma clearly said Bachelor of Arts. So were did this AB thing come from?

There on my transcript, in the box that identified my degree, was AB.

Israel and Iran

The two are going at it in serious terms. Israel has bombed nuclear sites in and around Teheran and have apparently taken out several high ranking Iranian military officers. However the Iranians have apparently shot down two F-35s which no one thought they were capable of doing.

Iran has retaliated with missiles and drones.

The US has been helping Israel to shoot down the Iranian counter measures and has moved two aircraft carriers into the region.

Not surprisingly the stock market is not happy about this especially given Iranian threats to shut the Straits of Hormuz.

In other words just another friendly day in the fucking Middle East.

Riots in Los Angeles

People in LA are not happy with what they consider strong arm tactics by ICE in rounding up illegal immigrants. ICE claims they're criminals and they're simply making the streets safer but the protestors say that's bullshit and it's just plain hardworking people being arrested. They're also claiming that those taken into custody are not being allowed to talk to family or legal counsel.

Every operation has two considerations. The first is whether or not the objective is positive or negative and the second is whether the procedure being used are right or wrong. 

I think both sides in LA need to consider the second part.

Trump has nationalized and deployed National Guard troops and has a contingent of Marines prepared to go in as well. Deploying the National Guard to quell unrest or rioting is not unusual. However deploying the Marines is another issue altogether. What is unusual is the Guard being deployed by the president rather than the governor. However, 10 USC 12406 allows the president to nationalize and deploy the National Guard under three specific circumstances. 

(1) the United States, or any of the Commonwealths or possessions, is invaded or is in danger of invasion by a foreign nation;

(2) there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States; or

(3) the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States;

Trump is claiming authorization under the second prong "there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States." Should be interesting to see what the courts have to say about this.

“The law recognises two sexes: science recognises seven"

This is a quote that I saw from a biologist about what biology professors say to themselves. Rather than calling "bullshit" on the claim I think I'll take it at face value. 

So what are the other five sexes?

There is certainly a wide variety of sexual variations which makes it very difficult to precisely define what is a male or what is a female. But I wasn’t aware that even extreme variations, such as Swyer Syndrome, may be considered new sexes.

There seven biological karyotypes that do not result in death to the fetus and I suppose these could be categorized as sexes but they're really just variations to my mind.

X – Roughly 1 in 2,000 to 1 in 5,000 people (Turner’s )

XX – Most common form of female

XXY – Roughly 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,000 people (Klinefelter)

XY – Most common form of male

XYY – Roughly 1 out of 1,000 people

XXX - Roughly 1 in 1,000 female births.

XXXY – Roughly 1 in 18,000 to 1 in 50,000 births

So, like I said, what are these other sexes?

As for gender. gender defines society’s expectations about the attitudes and actions associated with a given sex. In order to have more than two genders then one has to define more than two sexes. 

Gender is a continuum, ranging from man on one end woman on the other with varying degrees of gender nonconformity in between. But even radical gender nonconformity doesn’t result in a new gender. 

I can understand “gender fluid” as an individual that moves along the gender continuum for various reasons. I have no idea what “non-binary” means and transgender is the need, due to extreme dysphoria, to move from one sexual bucket into the other but isn’t itself a different gender.

Medicaid Cuts

The fiscal centerpiece of the Republican  “big, beautiful bill” now making its way through Congress is to take Medicaid away from jobless adults. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the work requirement would save $300 billion over a decade and take health insurance from 7.6 million people. 

I know that we would all like to think that those 7.6 million people will find alternate health insurance. Unfortunately I suspect that's not going to happen.

So now when those 7.6 million people get sick they will go to the hospital emergency room. Hospitals, by law, cannot turn away uninsured patients. To make matters worse, uninsured patients may now be using hospital emergency rooms for ailments that would previously have been handled by their primary care doctors.

About 75%-80% of uninsured patient costs are paid for by a combination of state, local and federal dollars. The rest is absorbed by the hospital. 

So the costs aren't going away. It's a big shell game with the GOP basically shifting most of the costs to local governments, state governments and the hospitals. In some areas this may drive hospitals out of business which will just further confuse the issue.

This is another example of the GOP only looking at the savings side of the balance sheet without considering the cost side. These cuts could well turn out to be penny wise and pound foolish.

There is a New Pope

On the second day of balloting the College of Cardinals have elected a new Pope. He is Robert Francis Cardinal Prevost from Chicago who will reign as Leo XIV.

So, we have the first American Pope. He is reported to be a centrist who worries about the less fortunate but is also very conservative on church doctrine.

It would be nice if he would take up the mantle and oppose some of Trump's policies but I wouldn't hold my breath.

So What's New?

So what's new? Not all that much that I want to talk about.

The US GDP declines by 0.3% last quarter. One more quarter of GDP decline and we'll be officially be in a recession.

The College of Cardinals will begin balloting for a new Pope tomorrow now that Pope Francis has been laid to rest.

The Stock Market continues to be jittery and Trump continues to be unpredictable. His latest things include (1) saying he wants to reopen Alcatraz, (2) he wants to put tariffs on foreign movies and (3) he's not sure if he has to uphold the Constitution.

I wish Trump would find a new toy and stop with the tariff shit already.

The Fed will meet Wednesday and decide on interest rates. Inflation is sitting at 2.4% so they can either cut rates or leave them the same. It sounds like most economic experts expect them to keep rates the same despite the incessant whining from the White House to cut them.

I passed my cancer check last week but will go through it again in six months. My daughter is recovering from her ACL surgery but is getting more than a little tired of being laid up. She started physical therapy this week so she has my sympathies.

Republican Voters

After listening to Republican supporters, and thinking about it a bit, I've concluded that there are three types of people that vote Republican. 

(1) Those that have always voted Republican and always will vote Republican. It's like breathing for them. They do it with no thought or emotion. It's just automatic. If it was Jesus (D) vs Satan (R) they would still automatically vote for the guy with the (R). 

(2) Those that think the Republicans will make lots of money for them. These people are getting a rude awakening with the tanking stock market. Trump and the GOP are actually losing them money. This is the only group that might learn their lesson. 

(3) The people that just want to make someone else miserable. These people will gladly cut off their own noses if they think it will hurt the people that they don't like.

Play that Funky Music White Boy

 Well, the first round of the NFL draft is done. I went to bed early satisfied with the Giants pick of Abdul Carter a defensive linemen from Penn State.

My daughter is recovering from surgery to correct a torn ACL so when I went in to the injury room (which used to be the Covid sick room) to check how she was doing I said something the Giants not picking a quarterback.

Her reaction, no, they traded up and picked that white boy from Mississippi. That would be Jaxson Dart by name. He's originally from Utah. He's young, only 21 years old and has decent size at 6'2" and 220 pounds. The evaluation on him is "Good backup with the potential to develop into starter" which is hardly overwhelming.

So, I suppose we get Eli Manning phase 2? One can only hope. 

I'm guessing Russell Wilson will start, Jameis Winston will be backup and Dart will be the student. Maybe Eli can become a special coach?

The NFL Football Player on the Supreme Court

 There was a pro football player that served on the Supreme Court of the US. His name was Byron "Whizzer" White and he was on the court from 1962 to 1993.

He played in his college days for the Colorado Buffalos, was runner-up for the Heisman Trophy in 1937, was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates (now Steelers) in 1938 and led the league in rushing in his rookie season.

He then graduated from Colorado as valedictorian and attended Oxford University on a Rhodes Scholarship. The outbreak of World War II forced him to return to the US and he played two more seasons in the NFL for the Detroit Lions.

During WW 2 White served in naval intelligence in the Pacific (he wrote the intelligence report on the sinking of John F. Kennedy's PT-109), was awarded two Bronze Stars, and was honorably discharged as a lieutenant commander in 1945.

They don't make men like this anymore.

The Market Whiplash Continues

After a 2,900 point gain on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90 pause in most tariffs, but raised the tariffs on China to 124%, the market gave back 1,000 points yesterday and then clawed back about 600 points today.

I'm talking about the Dow but the Nasdaq and the S&P have been just as volatile.

It's the volatility that ridiculous. Swings of 1,000 points are becoming normal. I've never seen this type of wild behavior before.

The Disaster Continues

 After a 300 point drop yesterday it looked as if the market was going to rally today starting out with a 1,400 point gain.

It then proceeded to drop all day and is now sitting at over A 600 point loss. I've stopped looking at my accounts because it's just too depressing.

Trump's Tariffs

On April 2nd Trump initiated tariffs on just about everyone. China reciprocated and other countries are mulling over their response.

World markets crashed as a result. The Dow lost about 3,500 points in two days and I personally lost $113,000. 

What I don't understand is why so many people are cheering him on? I suspect it comes down to he hasn't done anything to hurt them personally...yet.

Trump Administration Includes Journalist in Classified Chat

Seriously, you can't make this shit up. Apparently a journalist was included on a chat detailing upcoming military operations against the Houthis in Yemen. What coming out of the White House about this is ludicrous and has gone something like this:

Day 1: We didn't send classified data to a journalist.

Day 2: We sent data to a journalist but it wasn't classified.

Day 3: We didn't send any data to a journalist besides, it wasn't classified.

Day 4: No journalist received any data, besides, President Trump thought about declassifying it before it wasn't sent so it wasn't classified.

Day 5: This data doesn't exist so we couldn't have sent it to anyone, besides, it was never classified and President Trump declassified it anyway.

Day 6: Elon Musk saved $3.46 today so why are you talking about data which doesn't exist that was never sent to a journalist? Besides, the data was never classified, the journalist never received it and President Trump declassified it before it wasn't sent so this is just a big witch hunt.

In the meantime the market is crashing, people can't reach Social Security customer service on the phone, millions of dollars are being pulled from schools because Trump doesn't like their politics and foreign students are being arrested in broad daylight because they expressed disagreement with the administrations foreign policy.

Yet, according to a recent poll, large numbers of Americans now say that the country is headed in the "right direction."

We truly are an Idiocracy.

My Walmart Refund

 I decided to call Walmart Customer Service again but this time I fought my way through the automated answering system to Tammy, a real person.

Tammy did her magic and I immediately got an e-mail telling me that the price of my order "had changed" and I would get a refund.

Whoopie!

The next day I got $22 credited to my account...but I only paid $17. You know what, screw it. I'm keeping the extra five bucks.

Walmart, Taxes and Musk Oh My

It's been a while because I really don't have much to say.

Walmart never refunded my $17 and I just don't have the patience to deal with them so I might just write it off. Then again, I may not.

I got my taxes back and, I knew it was going to be bad, but wow. The federal government gets a check for $41,795 and the state a check for $4,149 bringing my total tax bills this year to $64,477 and $8,364 respectively.

As soon as I got the tax returns I filled out the New Jersey Property Tax relief application. We'll see how that goes. They don't start processing the applications until July and we won't see any payments until October. Given our income level I'm not even sure it was worth filling out the form.

That brings me to Musk who is still causing chaos without taking into account the consequences. He keeps screwing around with Social Security and, so far at least, Social Security isn't impressed. I wonder if Social Security could be Musk's Waterloo as the Army was McCarthy's?

SNAP and Medicaid Cuts

 First of all, let's understand that these cuts WILL NOT lead to a reduction in the deficit or the debt because they will be more than offset by $4.5 trillion in tax cuts which the COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS has been instructed to implement. 

The GOP framework itself estimates about a $2 trillion deficit for each year which will raise the debt to about $55 trillion. This is NOT about reducing the debt or balancing the budget. It's about giving tax cuts to people who already have more money than they know what to do it. Elon Musk, if these tax cuts are implemented, will make more in saved taxes next year than any of us will earn in our lifetimes.

The GOP is playing a bit of a game here. The framework passed by the GOP doesn't specifically say that Medicaid and SNAP should be cut. What it does do is instruct the committees responsible for these programs to make cuts. The COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, which controls SNAP, is instructed to reduce the deficit (cut) by not less than $230 billion over 10 years. The COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE, which controls Medicaid, is instructed to reduce the deficit (cut) by not less than $880 billion over 10 years. 

So about $23 billion and $88 billion a year respectively. The problem is it's hard to see how these cuts can be achieved without impacting SNAP and Medicaid. But that doesn't mean they won't try to gaslight the whole country about what they're actually doing.

Walmart

There is no Walmart close to where I live. There is one in Suffern, New York but that's a fair distance. During the pandemic I started buying online from Walmart because sometimes it would be cheaper than Amazon. This worked out especially for paper goods.

The problem with that was since I didn't want to pay to join their Walmart+ for free shipping I always had to have at least $35 in my order in order to avoid paying shipping costs. That's really not too difficult because I can always throw in some toilet paper or paper towels which I then store in my garage.

This was sort of my downfall.

My wife wanted coffee. Folger's Decaf in the 25.9 oz. plastic cannister in particular. I must have been bored that day because I checked Walmart, Amazon and Stop & Shop and it was a little cheaper on Walmart. But that only amounted to $17 so I threw in two packages of toilet paper.

It all arrived in a big box about two days later. As soon as my wife found the box she told me she could smell coffee.

Well, that wasn't a good sign.

The two packages of toilet paper and the coffee had been put in the box with no packing material or any way of keeping things from moving around during shipping. As a result the toilet paper had sort of crushed the coffee cannister and coffee had spilled out into the box.

The toilet paper smelled good though.

The toilet paper went into the garage and the coffee cannister and spilled coffee went into a garbage bag which we immediately put in the garbage can.

Then I decided to contact Walmart for a refund. I tried setting up a refund through their online website but it told me it couldn't process a coffee refund and I should call their 1-800 customer service number.

OK...of course what I got was an automated system which I went around in circles with for a bit before it finally connected me to Mohammed.

Mohammad listened patiently, apologized for the problem with the order, and then asked me if I could return the damaged item to a Walmart store. As previously explained, there ain't any Walmart close to me. 

When I said "no," Mohammed put me on hold to confer with greater powers. I figured he was going to come back and tell me to just dump the coffee (which I had already done) and they would simply refund my charge card.

Well, not quite. When Mohammed came back on he asked me if I could take the coffee to a Fedex return store. Now, we have a UPS store in the next town but I had no idea where I might find a Fedex store so, again, I said "no."

Mohammed put me on hold again and presumably went to confer with greater powers once again. Again I was expecting him to come back and tell me to just dump the coffee.

Nope. When Mohammed came back on he asked if it would be OK if they sent a Fedex truck to pick up the item the next day. That sounded absolutely ridiculous but I was going to be home so I said sure, why not? Mohammed said he would e-mail me a shipping label, which I should attach to the original box (you know that REALLY BIG box) and then wait for the Fedex truck to show up.

So, I retrieved the box from the garage, the coffee from the garbage, attached the shipping label and waited excitedly for the next day when the Fedex truck would arrive. I was finding the whole process wildly entertaining. This was all of a $17 item which, even if the container wasn't damaged, they couldn't legally resell anyway.

Sometime on Thursday February 20th, 2025, the Fedex truck arrived to pick up the broken coffee cannister. I couldn't resist sliding my hand under the flap of the huge box and lifting it effortlessly. the Fedex driver's eyes almost popped out until I explained that all that was in the box was a broken cannister of coffee, a garbage bag and some loose coffee. He returned to his truck humming and juggling the mostly empty big box.

So, today I said to myself it's been over a week since the Fedex truck picked up the box yet I see no refund on my charge card. Honestly, I was in no mood to call Walmart Customer Service but I figured I should play out this farce to the end.

Again I got an automated voice system which surprisingly got me to "checking on the status of a refund" pretty quickly. Now please note that today is Friday, February 28th, 2025 (the day where we're not buying anything from large corporations).

The first issue was to determine which order I was referring to. The automated voice asked me "are you referring to your most recent order of Angel Soft Toilet Paper on Saturday, March 2nd, 2025?"

Now there are SO many things wrong with that question not the least of which was that it would be Saturday, March 1st and that day was still in the future.

Anyway...after getting the order right, we arrived at they had processed the return and it could take up to 10 business days for it to appear on my charge card.

We shall see what we shall see. But why do I suspect I have a future date with Mohammed.

Dear Gaslit MAGATs,

To those of you that think the random mass layoffs of government workers is somehow going to improve things and lower the debt, I'd like to know WTF you're smoking?

They're firing people simply because they're vulnerable to being fired. If they were reviewing competency and efficiency and then making cuts, which is how RIFs are normally conducted, that would be different.

In the meantime the GOP budget framework calls for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts but $4.8 trillion in additional spending through tax cuts. The framework estimates a $2 trillion deficit each year for the next 10 years. That would increase the debt by $20 trillion.

Massively increasing the debt and the yearly interest payments is not how you become more prosperous.

In the meantime they're putting the quality of our air, the quality of our water, the safety of our food, our ability to protect against disease, our ability to educate our children, end of life care for the elderly, healthcare for the poor and food for hungry children at risk in order to fund tax cuts for people who already have more money than they know what to do with. By firing IRS personnel they're also making it easier for those same people to cheat on their taxes.

As for those of you crying about government regulations, we have regulations because far too many businesses would happily poison large segments of the population, including YOU, simply to make a buck. You think everything is good because of those regulations that quietly protect you and everyone else. You are enjoying the benefits of that government bureaucracy, that you clearly don't understand, every day. 

Does the Math Actually Work?

 I quoted the Republican budget framework but I really have analyzed it much. So, let's add up the numbers. Remember that all of these numbers are over ten years.

(1) COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $230,000,000,000.

Total = -$230 billion.

(2) COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES.— increase the deficit by not more than $100,000,000,000.

Total = -$230 billion + $100 billion = -$130 billion

(3) COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $330,000,000,000.

Total = -$130 billion - $330 billion = -$460 billion

(4) COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $880,000,000,000.

Total = -$460 billion - $880 billion = -$1,340 billion

(5) COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES.—reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,340 billion - $1 billion = -$1,341 billion

(6) COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY.—increase the deficit by not more than $90,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,341 billion + $90 billion = -$1,251 billion

(7) COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY.—increase the deficit by not more than $110,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,251 billion + $110 billion = -$1,141 billion

(8) COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES.—reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,141 billion - $1 billion = -$1,142 billion

(9) COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM.—reduce the deficit by not less than $50,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,142 billion - $50 billion = -$1,192 billion

(10) COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $10,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,192 billion - $10 billion = -$1,202 billion

(11) COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS.—increase the deficit by not more than $4,500,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,202 billion + $4,500 billion = $3,298 billion

So we have cuts that total $1,502 billion but increases that total $4,800 billion. Now, I've been retired for a long time and perhaps my math and accounting skills are a tad rusty, but that comes out to an INCREASE in spending of $3,298 billion over 10 year or about $330 billion per year.

As far as I can determine there is about a $2,600 billion increase in revenues assumed (I suppose as the result of the tax cuts). But that still leaves about $698 billion unaccounted for as far as I can tell.

The GOP Budget Bill

 The GOP budget bill just passed by the House is a criminal disgrace. Here are the main points.

(1) COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE.—The Committee on Agriculture shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $230,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(Agriculture is responsible for SNAP.)

(2) COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES.—The Committee on Armed Services shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $100,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This is an increase in the defense budget.)

(3) COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE.—The Committee on Education and Workforce shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $330,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This committee controls money for education and adult vocational training.)

(4) COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE.—The Committee on Energy and Commerce shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $880,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This committee controls Medicaid.)

(5) COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES.—The Committee on Financial Services shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(6) COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY.—The Committee on Homeland Security shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $90,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(7) COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY.—The Committee on the Judiciary shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $110,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(8) COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES.—The Committee on Natural Resources shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(9) COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM.—The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $50,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(10) COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE.—The Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $10,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(11) COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS.—The Committee on Ways and Means shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $4,500,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(Ways and Means is where the tax cuts for the wealthy get defined.)

(c) Increase in statutory debt limit.—The Committee on Ways and Means shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the statutory debt limit by $4,000,000,000,000.

(This increases the debt limit.)

But the biggest insanity may be in the estimated DEFICITS over the next ten years.

(4) DEFICITS.—For purposes of the enforcement of this concurrent resolution, the amounts of the deficits are as follows:

Fiscal year 2025: $2,081,821,000,000.

Fiscal year 2026: $1,856,417,000,000.

Fiscal year 2027: $1,755,228,000,000.

Fiscal year 2028: $1,901,485,000,000.

Fiscal year 2029: $1,854,462,000,000.

Fiscal year 2030: $1,975,904,000,000.

Fiscal year 2031: $1,990,221,000,000.

Fiscal year 2032: $2,044,925,000,000.

Fiscal year 2033: $2,229,056,000,000.

Fiscal year 2034: $2,119,226,000,000.

More on Trump and Musk

There are plenty of people running around and moaning about how Trump and Musk are demolishing our democracy.

Well, technically, they haven't demolished anything. Although they are using the loopholes in the system to cause some chaos. But they haven't done anything clearly illegal. At least not yet. There's a number of court cases challenging some of the things they've done so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

The president can legally create special advisors to investigate specific things and that's technically what Musk is doing. The difference is most "special advisors" don't make crazy claims in the press.

But that alliance isn't going to last. Musk is already making Trump look bad with some of his claims.

As for the stuff going on, it is legal to fire probationary employees and political appointees. Of course something can be legal and stupid at the same time. No one ever expected a president to be stupid enough to fire probational employees en masse but it is legal. 

USAID was created by executive order so it can be dissolved by executive order. 

Illegal immigrants are breaking the law so, legally, they can be arrested and deported. Like I said, something can be legal and stupid at the same time.

The bigger issue is the Republicans in Congress seem OK with what's going on. At least so far.

Let's not forget the ultimate objective, which is to at least extend the Trump 2017 tax cuts. But the only realistic way to do that is through Budget Reconciliation and they need a dollar in spending cuts for every dollar in tax cuts.

Honestly I'm surprised that Musk is paying such attention to Social Security because Social Security can't be changed through Budget Reconciliation. I'm thinking this is all misdirection so people don't realize they're about to gut Medicaid until it's too late.

Who Do I blame for the Mess We're In?

Trump is not a fascist and calling him a fascist doesn't make him one. Fascism is characterized by extreme nationalism, militarism, and the supremacy of the nation over the individual. Trump espouses none of these things. Trump's driving force is simple greed and self aggrandizement. He's a malignant narcissist that only cares about Trump.

To Trump, Musk and the Republicans it's all about money. They support the military not for the military's sake but for the millions of dollars in contributions that flow in from military contractors. To the Trump supporters it's all about "winning" after a lifetime of "losing."

The majority of people that support Trump are convinced that he's somehow fighting their battle for them. They're happy as long as they see themselves as "winning" and people that they don't like as "losing." It's not any deeper than that.

But the people I really blame for sticking us with Trump are the pure lilies of the left.

These are people who are totally intolerant of anyone that disagrees with them. We wouldn't be stuck with Trump now if millions of left wing idiots hadn't decided that because Harris wasn't walking around waving a Palestinian flag, that they weren't going to vote for her. They stayed home because they didn't like her stance on a war they didn't understand in a region of the world that they knew nothing about.

The right is ignorant but the left is arrogant. Those of us in the middle are disgusted with both of you.

The Musk Saga Continues

The more I hear about Musk and company the worse it gets and I had a REALLY low opinion of them to begin with.

Is Trump smart enough to be doing a Machiavelli with Musk? 

Prince sends Envoy to town or village. 

Envoy does bad stuff and people hate Envoy. 

Prince rides in, is horrified at the bad stuff that Envoy is doing. 

Prince chastises envoy for doing bad stuff. 

Envoy sees error of his ways or gets punished.

People cheer wildly for Prince as he rides out in triumph. 

I almost hope that he is that smart but I sort of doubt it.

150 Year-Olds Getting Social Security

 DOGE has found FRAUD!!! (not really). At least one commentator called it the biggest money laundering scheme in history!!! (he's just an idiot). Trump's press secretary broke the stunning news that tens of millions of people were fraudulently receiving Social Security checks!!! (nah, also not true).

So what's going on?

A couple of things really. Musk put out a spreadsheet supposedly listing the number of people at various ages marked as "alive" in the Social Security database including thousands that were listed at 150 years old. The list, for all ages, totaled up to almost 400 million people.

So Musk, the commentator and the press secretary immediately yelled FRAUD!!! If they had done just a tad more research they might not have made themselves look foolish.

First, the obvious. Being marked as "alive" is not the same thing as receiving benefits even if you appear to be old enough to do so.

Second, Social Security uses COBOL to manage its database. COBOL tracks dates by using a counter from a reference date. The usual reference date used is May 20th, 1875, which is the date of the signing of the international treaty on weights and measures. Any date not entered, or entered in the wrong format, would get a zero value and default to May 20th, 1875 which is probably how they're getting 150 year-olds.

Third, Social Security automatically stops benefits if someone turns 115. I suppose if you really do live that long you'll have to figure out a way to get them turned back on. When I get to 115 I'll let you know.

Fourth, the Inspector General's Office did a report in 2023 reporting that many entries for individuals showing as over 100 years old were incomplete but...since 98% of them weren't receiving benefits anyway, it wasn't worth the cost to update them.

So it's all a big fart nothing but now we have millions of people thinking that Social Security is a big money laundering fraud. So Musk and company have achieved their goal of making Social Security vulnerable.

Equity vs Equality

The "E" in DEI stands for equity and not equality. So what's the difference?

According to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, "Equal­i­ty assumes that every­body is oper­at­ing at the same start­ing point and will face the same cir­cum­stances and chal­lenges. Equi­ty rec­og­nizes the short­com­ings of this ​“one-size-fits-all” approach."

The above image is a famous example. The first image represents "equality" where each person gets one box even though the first individual doesn't even need it. The second image represents "equity" where each individual gets what he needs.

Other examples include shoe sizes and healthcare. It's better to give each person shoes that fit rather than the same size and it makes more sense to treat what's actually wrong with the patient rather than giving each patient the same treatment.

The problem with all of these examples is they assume infinite resources and everyone ending up with a satisfactory conclusion.

Let's modify the fence analogy a bit and assume that the fence represents an obstacle to success and being able to look over the fence represents overcoming the obstacle and achieving success. Let's also assume that the boxes represent an investment in resources such as education and training.

Realistically no one can succeed without some investment in resources so let's modify the first picture to show all three individuals blocked by the fence and each needing one, two and three boxes respectively to see over it.

Equality would be giving each person one box. That would allow only one person, the tallest, to succeed. Therefore we would get one success at a cost of three boxes. 

If we gave each individual what they needed to succeed it would cost six boxes and we would get three successes. Each success would now cost only two boxes but we would need twice the resources.

Now let's consider what the height of the individuals in the example represents. It would seem the taller an individual is then the fewer resources are required for him to succeed so perhaps height represents talent or aptitude. 

Well, if we were to search out three tall individuals, and give each of them one box, then we would get three successes for three boxes or one success per box. Alternatively we could give the tallest one box, the medium height individual two boxes, and the shortest individual none and get two successes for our three boxes.

This is a strategic allocation of resources intended to maximize return on investment,

This is what we used to do. We would use testing and interviews to find candidates that had the highest probability to succeed for the fewest resources. I'm not sure why we stopped doing this. No one has a right to demand a greater resource investment because they are less likely to succeed. 

Certainly no one has the right to demand that resources be taken away from someone else so they can succeed.

Me and Trump and a Dog Named Blue

Nort much of a title because I couldn't even get it to rhyme.

So what do I think about Trump's actions so far?

Illegal Immigration

I don't have a problem with declaring an emergency or sending troops to the southern border. It's just unclear to me if these moves are going to be effective as well as flashy. If you listen to the MAGATs then the southern border has been closed; if you listen to others then not so much.

Besides, I don't think troops can be kept there indefinitely so this may turn out to be just a stop gap measure.

As for rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them, again I'm not sure if this is more than a flash in the pan. In FY 2024 271,000 illegal immigrants were deported. That comes out to 742 a day. So far the numbers under Trump have been higher but not that much higher, In the first week DHS reportedly deported 7,300 people. That comes out to 1,042 a day but there may have been people already in the pipeline.

Trump is reportedly unhappy with the pace and has communicated to senior ICE officials a “quota” of 75 arrests per day for each of the agency’s 25 field offices. That would be 1,875 arrests per day. It's unclear what percentage of arrests result in deportations but let's assume it's 100%. That would be 684,375 deportations. If there are 11 million illegal immigrants that would take about 16 years to get the job done assuming no more enter.

Then again Stephen Miller says that the 1,875 arrests represents a floor and not a ceiling.

None of this works unless you eliminate the attraction for coming here by making people that hire illegal immigrants face harsh penalties.

Elimination of DEI Offices and Programs

This works for me as well. As I've said I think DEI does more harm than good but some of his underlings might be taking things a bit too far such as removing a training video featuring the Tuskegee Airman. Yes it was restored but come on.

Threats about Greenland and the Panama Canal

This is just idiotic. If Denmark wants to sell Greenland (they don't) and the people of Greenland want to be part of the US (they don't) that would be OK but they don't and they don't.

Trump should leave Panama alone. The new carriers can't fit through the canal anyway.

DOGE

I talked about this at length in the previous post. This is the dumbest thing that Trump has done. Even if the function is a good idea having Elon Musk lead the effort is not.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Clearly Trump thinks he can get some sort of concessions related to illegal immigrants and drugs crossing the border. If he can, then more power to him. But if he can't, then he paints himself into a corner where either he has to blink or put a big dent in the economy, risk inflation and make the stock market even more gimpy than its been. I've been getting whiplash from following the gyrations.

Tariffs on China

It's less clear to me what he's trying to accomplish here. I think I'll take a wait and see attitude.

Displacing the Palestinians from Gaza and Building a Tourist Resort

WTF man? Just WTF? I'm glad Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians told him to stuff it. I mean displace hundreds of thousands of people? WTF man? Just WTF?

Banning Trans Athletes in Women's Sports

I sort of agree with the objective here but I'm not sure this is going to accomplish a ban. It changes the interpretation of Title IX to no longer include allowing trans athletes to compete in events of their gender rather than their sex but not protecting something is not the same thing as banning it.

DOGE

DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency is a big problem primarily because Elon Musk is running it.

I have no issue with investigating inefficiency and fraud but, first, I thought we had an Inspector General's office to do that? What are those folks doing to earn their pay? 

Second, having someone investigating that cares more about being in the limelight than actually doing the job is a major problem. From what I've heard some of the stunts he's pulled are causing severe irritation if they aren't downright illegal. Musk and his goons should not have access to sensitive personal information such as security numbers and medical records.

Third, there is a clear conflict of interest here because and "cuts" that Musk comes up with will go directly toward financing the tax cuts he and his ilk have been promised.

Allow me to explain. The Republicans want to implement tax cuts or at the very least make the Trump tax cuts from 2017 extended or permanent, They don't have to votes to do that in the Senate except through a Budget Reconciliation bill which only requires 51 votes to pass. They might even have a hard time getting that but they're never getting 60 votes for a tax cut.

But, Budget Reconciliation must be budget neutral and tax cuts are considered spending. So for every tax cut dollar they need to a cut a dollar from current spending. Do you see the problem here? Musk and others stand to benefit directly from any spending cuts. That's a conflict of interest.

Black History Month

February is "Black History Month."

Personally I was never a fan of any of the various "months." They didn't bother me but I just never saw the point especially given that they made the shortest month of the year "Black History Month" (yes, I know that it coincides with the birthdays of President Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass which is why it's February).

Why should we celebrate subgroups of Americans? Why are we constantly dividing people into competing groups? Celebrating the accomplishments of individuals is different. I don't see anything wrong with that as long as the individual and the accomplishments are worthy of celebrating. The melting pot concept was much better than having groups that are constantly competing with each other rather than working toward a common goal.

I also hear people mixing up equality and equity and sometimes using them as interchangeable.

Equality and equity are two very different things. Equality provides equal opportunity while equity requires equal outcomes which is a little absurd. I can give you the opportunity to bat in a major league baseball game but I can't guarantee that you'll hit the ball.

The FAA and DEI

With the collision of an American Airlines plane and an army helicopter in DC the other night, and then Trump blaming the collision on DEI, I figured I should look into this a bit.

Having had some interaction with the FAA while training as an aircraft mechanic I can safely say that at least back then these were not people about to cut any corners. Safety was their first, last and middle names for obvious reasons.

But that was a long time ago. What about now?

What I do know is the FAA was using a "Biographical Assessment" test as a screening tool from 2013 up until 2018 for ATC candidates. 

Some critics argued that the questionnaire could lead to hiring less qualified candidates but proponents disagreed. 

There is an ongoing class action lawsuit related to the "Biographical Assessment" test. It was replaced in 2018, due to Congress passing a law banning its use, with the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test.

Personally, having not taken either, I know nothing about these two exams beyond their names.

However, the "Biographical Assessment" test was apparently intended to broaden the potential pool of ATC recruits. It's been my experience that broadening the pool of applicants is a good thing unless it's done artificially.

Regardless, both the "Biographical Assessment" test and the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test are screening tests. I would assume that the people who score the highest are then accepted for the rigorous training associated with becoming an air traffic controller.

So I would have a couple of questions. First, what effect did changing the screening test have on the number that passed the test? Second, how did those who passed the different screening tests do in completing the training? Were any adjustments ever made to the training requirements in order to get more candidates successfully through the training?

Of course I'll never get any answers to these questions but perhaps someone else might.

Regrets About Voting for Trump?

A lot of people are claiming that Trump voters are regretting their choice given the chaos that has ensued and the clown choices for the cabinet. You'll excuse me but I don't buy it.

I don’t see a lot of regret among Trump voters. Most of them seem to be cheering him on and I’m afraid that will be the case for a long time.

The formula seems to be as follows:

(1) anything that goes right is because Trump is a genius and made it go right and 

(2) anything that goes wrong is the fault of (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants and Trump is working very hard to fix the problems caused by (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants.

It's going to be a long four years.

Trump EO Halted

 A federal judge has placed a halt on Trump's EO on birthright citizenship. That didn't take long did it?

Let's Talk Birthright Citizenship

Birthright Citizenship simply refers to the principle that if you are born in the US then you are a US citizen. This has been the traditional interpretation of the 14th Amendment which states:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Despite what much of the media is saying Trump is NOT, at least not yet, trying to eliminate birthright citizenship or defy the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.

The claim, and it has been a conservative claim for at least a decade, is that illegal aliens, and therefore their offspring, are not "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" of the United States and therefore are not automatically granted citizenship.

This seems to contradict a Supreme Court decision in 1898. In the landmark case “U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark” the Supreme Court decided that the 14th Amendment must be interpreted based upon English Common Law and included all native-born children except for those who were: (1) born to foreign rulers or diplomats, (2) born on foreign public ships, or (3) born to enemy forces engaged in hostile occupation of the country's territory.

Note that "born to illegal immigrants" is not listed as an exception. The problem is that Wong Kim Ark's parents were LEGAL immigrants. 

The question was referred to in a footnote in "Plyler v. Doe" in 1982 which interpreted "Wong Kim Ark" as making "no plausible distinction...between legal and illegal resident aliens."

"Plyler v. Doe" may not settle the matter because the footnote is dictum and could arguably be said to be a misinterpretation of "Wong Kim Ark."

Besides, we already know that this court doesn't care about legal precedent or stare decisis. If they can overturn the 50 year old "Roe v. Wade" then why not the 125 year old "Wong Kim Ark?"

Trump's Busy First Day

As promised (threatened?) Trump issued a flurry of executive orders on day one but less than some of his cronies said were going to be issued. It was hardly "shock and awe." Here are the biggies and my opinions on them.

Pardoned 1,500 convicted January 6th rioters.

This is by far the most egregious and disgusting thing that Trump has ever done. There can't be any doubt now who instigated the riot and there can't be any doubt about Trump's disdain for the rule of law.

Declared an emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border.

He did this in his first term as well. Basically it allows him to deploy federal troops to help guard the border and divert defense funds towards building his long promised wall.

This is a big meh. Troops aren't very effective in this role and the wall never seems to get built. I'm still waiting for Mexico to pay for that wall by the way.

Designated "certain international cartels" and organizations, such as Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations and announced plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target them.

Saying you're going to do something and effectively doing it are two different things. I'll reserve judgement on this one but I don't have any particular problem with the idea.

Signed an order withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty.

He withdrew in his first term as well claiming that the treaty was biased against the US. Honestly I haven't heard much about the treaty recently so I'm not sure how effective it is anyway. So also a big meh.

Froze federal hiring, except for members of the military or “positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, or public safety.”

We'll see how long this lasts as people continue to resign and things don't get done. Hiring freezes from the top usually backfire and I expect this one to backfire as well.

Restored a category of federal workers known as Schedule F, which would lack the same job protections enjoyed by career civil servants.

As I've said before this may well be the most dangerous thing. It basically allows replacing civil servants and matter experts with political loyalists. Can you spell Union of Soviet Socialist Republics? This is what the USSR used to do. They put party loyalists in positions of authority for which they had no qualifications.

Halted new federal rules from going into effect before Trump administration appointees can review them.

I don't really have a problem with this one. I would have done the same. Unfortunately I'm not sure the people reviewing these rules have the expertise to review them properly.

Granted top secret security clearances to White House staff without going through traditional vetting procedures.

Given that the Trump team doesn't seem to have properly vetting this staff this strikes me as extremely stupid and dangerous. 

Ended remote work policies and order federal workers back to the office full time.

OK, but I would have left this up to the middle managers who have a better handle on how well remote work is getting things done.

Barred asylum for people newly arriving at the southern border.

Not a big surprise. This sounds reasonable but this is outside my area of expertise.

Moved to end birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment, for the children of undocumented immigrants.

Basically claiming that illegal immigrants and thus their children are not "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States as required in the 14th Amendment. This has been a conservative talking point for at least a decade. This has already been challenged in court. The SCOTUS has rejected similar arguments in the past but what this court will do is anybody's guess.

Terminated DEI programs across the federal government.

I'm not a fan of DEI so I'm all for this.

Recognized two sexes: male and female.

I'm not aware of anyone that said there are more than two. Does it actually refer to genders? I'm not sure this will have any practical effect.

Removed protections for transgender people in federal prisons.

This sounds like it could get someone killed and I honestly don't see the point.

Directed federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices.

I have no problem with this one. I also expect nothing to come of it.

Ordered the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.

The Office of Tariff Affairs & Trade Agreements already does this. This is a big change from his declaration that he would create such an agency. Apparently the moron didn't know it already existed.

Ordered a full review of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security-related tariffs are warranted.

This is also a big retreat from assessing punishing new tariffs on day one. I don't really have a problem with this and it looks like somebody in the administration might actually understand how tariffs work and what they're good for.

Ordered his attorney general not to enforce a law that banned the TikTok site for 75 days to give the administration “an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward.”

I think TikTok is a cesspool that we would all be better of without but I don't really see a problem with taking this direction.

Withdraw from the World Health Organization.

He did this in his first administration. The WHO is just a boogey man for some of his ignorant followers. This is a mistake that may come to bite us in the ass down the road.

Rename Mount Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.

I suspect everyone will ignore his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America but I'm not sure about Denali going back to McKinley. I think this is a petty and stupid move. It's something that I would expect from a petulant child and not a president.

Ensure that states carrying out the death penalty have a “sufficient supply” of lethal injection drugs.

I think we should be banning the death penalty rather than insuring death sentences can be carried out. Again, I don't see the point of this.

Implement the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led cost-cutting initiative.

This one is apparently violating several laws and has already been challenged. But, again, it's impossible to say what this SCOTUS will decide and I'm pretty sure that's where this will end up.

Revoked security clearances for 51 signers of a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.

This is just petty and stupid.

The bottom line is that Trump has again demonstrated that he's a petty, vindictive narcissist that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near any position of authority. But let's see how these things work out in practice before we get too bent out of shape. 

College Football Playoff V

 The championship game has arrived.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl)

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 23, No. 8 Ohio State 34 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia)

Congratulations Buckeyes.

The Department of Education

Trump and his cronies want to eliminate the Department of Education. Much of what the DOE does is to fund special education programs in the states. About 60% of this money flows to red states.

So basically it takes blue state tax dollars and gives them to red states because the red states want to keep their taxes low rather than support education for their own children. Did I get that right?

OK, that was a bit snarky, but I live in New Jersey and, according to the Rockefeller Institute, New Jersey sends $3,100 more per year, per person to the federal government than it gets back. That translates to $9,300 for my household alone. It sure would be nice if a couple of thousand of that would go toward reducing my property taxes instead.

My town has an education budget of $27 million and it gets $162 thousand from the federal government for special education programs. That’s about 0.6%. Given that the town has a population of about 10,000 that’s a pretty bad exchange for the approximately $31 million extra that we’re providing to the federal government per year.

If I’m supposed to be voting for my best interests, then perhaps I should be cheering Trump on as he shuts down the DOE.

I didn’t vote for Trump because I think he’s going to do a lot of damage to a lot of innocent people and perhaps closing the DOE would be part of that damage. But there is a degree of frustration here as blue state tax dollars continue to get shuffled to red states for things those states should be paying for themselves.

The ERA Amendment, Again

President Joe Biden has declared "The Equal Rights Amendment is the law of the land — now!" 

He made this announcement during a speech to the U.S. Conference of Mayors. "It's the 28th amendment to the Constitution — now."

Or, maybe not. 

Supporters claimed that when Virginia ratified five years ago that it was the 38th state to do so and therefore the amendment had been ratified. Biden didn't say why he waited until only two days were left in his presidency to make this pronouncement.

Biden can declare whatever he wants but the President has no role in amending the Constitution. The amendment would have to be certified by the National Archivist and the Archivist's office has said that the ERA "cannot be certified as part of the Constitution due to established legal, judicial, and procedural decisions."

There are a flurry of issues with this amendment. 

The first issue is time. The original amendment had a time limit in the preamble of March of 1979. Then Congress extended the time limit until June of 1982. A federal district court held that congress had no power to do that. This was appealed to the SCOTUS which allowed the date of June 1982 to pass and then declared that the issue was moot.

Supporters claim that since the time limit was in the preamble it doesn't count. Well, then why did Congress extend it? Even if the original limit didn't count certainly one could argue that the extended one counts. The SCOTUS essentially said so when it declared the issue moot.

The second issue is that six state legislatures, Nebraska, Tennessee, Idaho, Kentucky, South Dakota and North Dakota, have rescinded ratification. The Kentucky resolution to rescind was vetoed by the Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky acting in the absence of the governor.

So there are two questions here. First, can a state rescind ratification? It would make sense that it could in order to give voters a chance to express disapproval. 

If it can, then can the governor veto the resolution that rescinds ratification? Although that wouldn't matter here but it leads to the question of whether a governor can veto ratification? I would say he can't veto ratification so he probably can't veto rescinding ratification assuming that a state can rescind ratification.

I think this duck is dead regardless of what Biden says. I'll be surprised if we hear any more about it although it would nice to have the SCOTUS resolve all the open questions.

Potential Republican Cuts?

Politico published a list of cuts that House Republicans are supposedly considering supposedly to fund Trump's tax cuts and mass deportation agendas. I've included the list but I have no way of knowing either how accurate the list is or how accurate the savings numbers are. The savings are over 10 years.

PENDING REFORM OPTIONS

Policy Explainer

Topline Savings: $5.3 - $5.7 T

1. REPEAL MAJOR BIDEN HEALTH RULES ($420B)

2. STRENGTHEN MEDICARE FOR SENIORS ($479B)

o Site Neutral – $146B

o Uncompensated Care – $229B

o Bad Debt – $42B

o BCA Mandatory Sequester Extension - $62B

3. MAKING MEDICAID WORK FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE ($2.3T)

o Per Capita Caps - up to $918B

o Equalize Medicaid Payments for Able Bodied Adults - up to $690B

o Limit Medicaid Provider Taxes - $175B

o Lower FMAP Floor - $387B

o Special FMAP Treatment for DC – $8B

o Repeal American Rescue Plan FMAP Incentive – $18B

o Medicaid Work Requirements - $120B

4. REIMAGINING THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT (ACA) ($151B)

o Recapture Excess Premium Tax Credit – $46B

o Limit Health Program Eligibility Based on Citizenship Status - $35B

o Repeal the Prevention Public Health Fund – $15B

o Appropriate Cost Sharing Reductions - $55B

5. ENDING CRADLE-TO-GRAVE DEPENDENCE ($347B)

o Reinstate the Trump-era Public Charge Rule -- $15B

o Reduce TANF by 10 Percent – $15B

o Eliminate the TANF Contingency Fund -- $6B

o Reform the Thrifty Food Plan -- up to $274B

o Eliminate the Social Services Block Grant – $15B

o SNAP Reforms – $22B

6. REVERSING BIDEN CLIMATE POLICIES ($468B)

o Discontinue the Green New Deal Provisions in the 2021 Infrastructure Bill – $300B

o Repeal EV Mandate – $112B

o Repeal IRA green energy grant s– $56B

7. OTHER: ($917B-$1T)

o End the Student Loan Bailout – $200-330B

o Rescind all Unspent COVID Money – $11B

o Auction Spectrum – $60 billion

o Repeal Orderly Liquidation Authority – $22 billion

o Increase FERS Contributions – $45 billion

o Other federal employee benefit reforms – $32 billion

o Restrict emergency spending to recent average—$500B

o Eliminate the TSP G Fund Subsidy – $47B

8. POTENTIAL TAX OFFSETS: ($227-$527B)

o Green energy tax credits – $200 - $500B, depending on political viability

o SSN CTC Requirement – $27B 

College Football Playoff IV

I forgot all about the game last night and missed it. Well, I'm not missing tonight's game.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Well, only two left. It should be quite a treat. Interesting that the 7th and 8th seeds made it to the title game.

Stock Options

Ever wonder how CEOs and other executives get really rich really fast? Well no more. Welcome to the wonderful world of stock options.

Salary and stock granted as compensation are taxed as ordinary income but not stock options because the option may never be exercised.

Incentive stock options which are awarded to CEOs and executives are known as statutory stock options.

From IRS Topic no. 427, Stock options:

"Options granted under an employee stock purchase plan or an incentive stock option (ISO) plan are statutory stock options."

Also from IRS Topic no. 427"

"If your employer grants you a statutory stock option, you generally don't include any amount in your gross income when you receive or exercise the option. However, you may be subject to alternative minimum tax in the year you exercise an ISO...You have taxable income or deductible loss when you sell the stock you bought by exercising the option. You generally treat this amount as a capital gain or loss. However, if you don't meet special holding period requirements, you'll have to treat income from the sale as ordinary income."

So stock options have two advantages. First, you get to buy the stock at below market value because options are almost always discounted. Second, assuming you meet the holding period requirements which are typically pretty modest, the compensation is treated as Long Term Capitol Gains rather than ordinary income. Hell, if you hold onto the stock no taxes may be paid for 10, 20 years.

If you think this is fair, then so be it. I think it's insane that we have store clerks paying normal income tax while CEOs get millions in compensation that they only pay LTCGs on or perhaps no tax at all for years.