Saturday, April 05, 2025

Trump's Tariffs

On April 2nd Trump initiated tariffs on just about everyone. China reciprocated and other countries are mulling over their response.

World markets crashed as a result. The Dow lost about 3,500 points in two days and I personally lost $113,000. 

What I don't understand is why so many people are cheering him on? I suspect it comes down to he hasn't done anything to hurt them personally...yet.

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Trump Administration Includes Journalist in Classified Chat

Seriously, you can't make this shit up. Apparently a journalist was included on a chat detailing upcoming military operations against the Houthis in Yemen. What coming out of the White House about this is ludicrous and has gone something like this:

Day 1: We didn't send classified data to a journalist.

Day 2: We sent data to a journalist but it wasn't classified.

Day 3: We didn't send any data to a journalist besides, it wasn't classified.

Day 4: No journalist received any data, besides, President Trump thought about declassifying it before it wasn't sent so it wasn't classified.

Day 5: This data doesn't exist so we couldn't have sent it to anyone, besides, it was never classified and President Trump declassified it anyway.

Day 6: Elon Musk saved $3.46 today so why are you talking about data which doesn't exist that was never sent to a journalist? Besides, the data was never classified, the journalist never received it and President Trump declassified it before it wasn't sent so this is just a big witch hunt.

In the meantime the market is crashing, people can't reach Social Security customer service on the phone, millions of dollars are being pulled from schools because Trump doesn't like their politics and foreign students are being arrested in broad daylight because they expressed disagreement with the administrations foreign policy.

Yet, according to a recent poll, large numbers of Americans now say that the country is headed in the "right direction."

We truly are an Idiocracy.

My Walmart Refund

 I decided to call Walmart Customer Service again but this time I fought my way through the automated answering system to Tammy, a real person.

Tammy did her magic and I immediately got an e-mail telling me that the price of my order "had changed" and I would get a refund.

Whoopie!

The next day I got $22 credited to my account...but I only paid $17. You know what, screw it. I'm keeping the extra five bucks.

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Walmart, Taxes and Musk Oh My

It's been a while because I really don't have much to say.

Walmart never refunded my $17 and I just don't have the patience to deal with them so I might just write it off. Then again, I may not.

I got my taxes back and, I knew it was going to be bad, but wow. The federal government gets a check for $41,795 and the state a check for $4,149 bringing my total tax bills this year to $64,477 and $8,364 respectively.

As soon as I got the tax returns I filled out the New Jersey Property Tax relief application. We'll see how that goes. They don't start processing the applications until July and we won't see any payments until October. Given our income level I'm not even sure it was worth filling out the form.

That brings me to Musk who is still causing chaos without taking into account the consequences. He keeps screwing around with Social Security and, so far at least, Social Security isn't impressed. I wonder if Social Security could be Musk's Waterloo as the Army was McCarthy's?

Friday, February 28, 2025

SNAP and Medicaid Cuts

 First of all, let's understand that these cuts WILL NOT lead to a reduction in the deficit or the debt because they will be more than offset by $4.5 trillion in tax cuts which the COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS has been instructed to implement. 

The GOP framework itself estimates about a $2 trillion deficit for each year which will raise the debt to about $55 trillion. This is NOT about reducing the debt or balancing the budget. It's about giving tax cuts to people who already have more money than they know what to do it. Elon Musk, if these tax cuts are implemented, will make more in saved taxes next year than any of us will earn in our lifetimes.

The GOP is playing a bit of a game here. The framework passed by the GOP doesn't specifically say that Medicaid and SNAP should be cut. What it does do is instruct the committees responsible for these programs to make cuts. The COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, which controls SNAP, is instructed to reduce the deficit (cut) by not less than $230 billion over 10 years. The COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE, which controls Medicaid, is instructed to reduce the deficit (cut) by not less than $880 billion over 10 years. 

So about $23 billion and $88 billion a year respectively. The problem is it's hard to see how these cuts can be achieved without impacting SNAP and Medicaid. But that doesn't mean they won't try to gaslight the whole country about what they're actually doing.

Walmart

There is no Walmart close to where I live. There is one in Suffern, New York but that's a fair distance. During the pandemic I started buying online from Walmart because sometimes it would be cheaper than Amazon. This worked out especially for paper goods.

The problem with that was since I didn't want to pay to join their Walmart+ for free shipping I always had to have at least $35 in my order in order to avoid paying shipping costs. That's really not too difficult because I can always throw in some toilet paper or paper towels which I then store in my garage.

This was sort of my downfall.

My wife wanted coffee. Folger's Decaf in the 25.9 oz. plastic cannister in particular. I must have been bored that day because I checked Walmart, Amazon and Stop & Shop and it was a little cheaper on Walmart. But that only amounted to $17 so I threw in two packages of toilet paper.

It all arrived in a big box about two days later. As soon as my wife found the box she told me she could smell coffee.

Well, that wasn't a good sign.

The two packages of toilet paper and the coffee had been put in the box with no packing material or any way of keeping things from moving around during shipping. As a result the toilet paper had sort of crushed the coffee cannister and coffee had spilled out into the box.

The toilet paper smelled good though.

The toilet paper went into the garage and the coffee cannister and spilled coffee went into a garbage bag which we immediately put in the garbage can.

Then I decided to contact Walmart for a refund. I tried setting up a refund through their online website but it told me it couldn't process a coffee refund and I should call their 1-800 customer service number.

OK...of course what I got was an automated system which I went around in circles with for a bit before it finally connected me to Mohammed.

Mohammad listened patiently, apologized for the problem with the order, and then asked me if I could return the damaged item to a Walmart store. As previously explained, there ain't any Walmart close to me. 

When I said "no," Mohammed put me on hold to confer with greater powers. I figured he was going to come back and tell me to just dump the coffee (which I had already done) and they would simply refund my charge card.

Well, not quite. When Mohammed came back on he asked me if I could take the coffee to a Fedex return store. Now, we have a UPS store in the next town but I had no idea where I might find a Fedex store so, again, I said "no."

Mohammed put me on hold again and presumably went to confer with greater powers once again. Again I was expecting him to come back and tell me to just dump the coffee.

Nope. When Mohammed came back on he asked if it would be OK if they sent a Fedex truck to pick up the item the next day. That sounded absolutely ridiculous but I was going to be home so I said sure, why not? Mohammed said he would e-mail me a shipping label, which I should attach to the original box (you know that REALLY BIG box) and then wait for the Fedex truck to show up.

So, I retrieved the box from the garage, the coffee from the garbage, attached the shipping label and waited excitedly for the next day when the Fedex truck would arrive. I was finding the whole process wildly entertaining. This was all of a $17 item which, even if the container wasn't damaged, they couldn't legally resell anyway.

Sometime on Thursday February 20th, 2025, the Fedex truck arrived to pick up the broken coffee cannister. I couldn't resist sliding my hand under the flap of the huge box and lifting it effortlessly. the Fedex driver's eyes almost popped out until I explained that all that was in the box was a broken cannister of coffee, a garbage bag and some loose coffee. He returned to his truck humming and juggling the mostly empty big box.

So, today I said to myself it's been over a week since the Fedex truck picked up the box yet I see no refund on my charge card. Honestly, I was in no mood to call Walmart Customer Service but I figured I should play out this farce to the end.

Again I got an automated voice system which surprisingly got me to "checking on the status of a refund" pretty quickly. Now please note that today is Friday, February 28th, 2025 (the day where we're not buying anything from large corporations).

The first issue was to determine which order I was referring to. The automated voice asked me "are you referring to your most recent order of Angel Soft Toilet Paper on Saturday, March 2nd, 2025?"

Now there are SO many things wrong with that question not the least of which was that it would be Saturday, March 1st and that day was still in the future.

Anyway...after getting the order right, we arrived at they had processed the return and it could take up to 10 business days for it to appear on my charge card.

We shall see what we shall see. But why do I suspect I have a future date with Mohammed.

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Dear Gaslit MAGATs,

To those of you that think the random mass layoffs of government workers is somehow going to improve things and lower the debt, I'd like to know WTF you're smoking?

They're firing people simply because they're vulnerable to being fired. If they were reviewing competency and efficiency and then making cuts, which is how RIFs are normally conducted, that would be different.

In the meantime the GOP budget framework calls for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts but $4.8 trillion in additional spending through tax cuts. The framework estimates a $2 trillion deficit each year for the next 10 years. That would increase the debt by $20 trillion.

Massively increasing the debt and the yearly interest payments is not how you become more prosperous.

In the meantime they're putting the quality of our air, the quality of our water, the safety of our food, our ability to protect against disease, our ability to educate our children, end of life care for the elderly, healthcare for the poor and food for hungry children at risk in order to fund tax cuts for people who already have more money than they know what to do with. By firing IRS personnel they're also making it easier for those same people to cheat on their taxes.

As for those of you crying about government regulations, we have regulations because far too many businesses would happily poison large segments of the population, including YOU, simply to make a buck. You think everything is good because of those regulations that quietly protect you and everyone else. You are enjoying the benefits of that government bureaucracy, that you clearly don't understand, every day. 

Does the Math Actually Work?

 I quoted the Republican budget framework but I really have analyzed it much. So, let's add up the numbers. Remember that all of these numbers are over ten years.

(1) COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $230,000,000,000.

Total = -$230 billion.

(2) COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES.— increase the deficit by not more than $100,000,000,000.

Total = -$230 billion + $100 billion = -$130 billion

(3) COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $330,000,000,000.

Total = -$130 billion - $330 billion = -$460 billion

(4) COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $880,000,000,000.

Total = -$460 billion - $880 billion = -$1,340 billion

(5) COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES.—reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,340 billion - $1 billion = -$1,341 billion

(6) COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY.—increase the deficit by not more than $90,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,341 billion + $90 billion = -$1,251 billion

(7) COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY.—increase the deficit by not more than $110,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,251 billion + $110 billion = -$1,141 billion

(8) COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES.—reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,141 billion - $1 billion = -$1,142 billion

(9) COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM.—reduce the deficit by not less than $50,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,142 billion - $50 billion = -$1,192 billion

(10) COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE.—reduce the deficit by not less than $10,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,192 billion - $10 billion = -$1,202 billion

(11) COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS.—increase the deficit by not more than $4,500,000,000,000.

Total = -$1,202 billion + $4,500 billion = $3,298 billion

So we have cuts that total $1,502 billion but increases that total $4,800 billion. Now, I've been retired for a long time and perhaps my math and accounting skills are a tad rusty, but that comes out to an INCREASE in spending of $3,298 billion over 10 year or about $330 billion per year.

As far as I can determine there is about a $2,600 billion increase in revenues assumed (I suppose as the result of the tax cuts). But that still leaves about $698 billion unaccounted for as far as I can tell.

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

The GOP Budget Bill

 The GOP budget bill just passed by the House is a criminal disgrace. Here are the main points.

(1) COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE.—The Committee on Agriculture shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $230,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(Agriculture is responsible for SNAP.)

(2) COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES.—The Committee on Armed Services shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $100,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This is an increase in the defense budget.)

(3) COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE.—The Committee on Education and Workforce shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $330,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This committee controls money for education and adult vocational training.)

(4) COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE.—The Committee on Energy and Commerce shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $880,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(This committee controls Medicaid.)

(5) COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES.—The Committee on Financial Services shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(6) COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY.—The Committee on Homeland Security shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $90,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(7) COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY.—The Committee on the Judiciary shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $110,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(8) COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES.—The Committee on Natural Resources shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $1,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(9) COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM.—The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $50,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(10) COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE.—The Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction to reduce the deficit by not less than $10,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(11) COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS.—The Committee on Ways and Means shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the deficit by not more than $4,500,000,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2025 through 2034.

(Ways and Means is where the tax cuts for the wealthy get defined.)

(c) Increase in statutory debt limit.—The Committee on Ways and Means shall submit changes in laws within its jurisdiction that increase the statutory debt limit by $4,000,000,000,000.

(This increases the debt limit.)

But the biggest insanity may be in the estimated DEFICITS over the next ten years.

(4) DEFICITS.—For purposes of the enforcement of this concurrent resolution, the amounts of the deficits are as follows:

Fiscal year 2025: $2,081,821,000,000.

Fiscal year 2026: $1,856,417,000,000.

Fiscal year 2027: $1,755,228,000,000.

Fiscal year 2028: $1,901,485,000,000.

Fiscal year 2029: $1,854,462,000,000.

Fiscal year 2030: $1,975,904,000,000.

Fiscal year 2031: $1,990,221,000,000.

Fiscal year 2032: $2,044,925,000,000.

Fiscal year 2033: $2,229,056,000,000.

Fiscal year 2034: $2,119,226,000,000.

Monday, February 24, 2025

More on Trump and Musk

There are plenty of people running around and moaning about how Trump and Musk are demolishing our democracy.

Well, technically, they haven't demolished anything. Although they are using the loopholes in the system to cause some chaos. But they haven't done anything clearly illegal. At least not yet. There's a number of court cases challenging some of the things they've done so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

The president can legally create special advisors to investigate specific things and that's technically what Musk is doing. The difference is most "special advisors" don't make crazy claims in the press.

But that alliance isn't going to last. Musk is already making Trump look bad with some of his claims.

As for the stuff going on, it is legal to fire probationary employees and political appointees. Of course something can be legal and stupid at the same time. No one ever expected a president to be stupid enough to fire probational employees en masse but it is legal. 

USAID was created by executive order so it can be dissolved by executive order. 

Illegal immigrants are breaking the law so, legally, they can be arrested and deported. Like I said, something can be legal and stupid at the same time.

The bigger issue is the Republicans in Congress seem OK with what's going on. At least so far.

Let's not forget the ultimate objective, which is to at least extend the Trump 2017 tax cuts. But the only realistic way to do that is through Budget Reconciliation and they need a dollar in spending cuts for every dollar in tax cuts.

Honestly I'm surprised that Musk is paying such attention to Social Security because Social Security can't be changed through Budget Reconciliation. I'm thinking this is all misdirection so people don't realize they're about to gut Medicaid until it's too late.

Who Do I blame for the Mess We're In?

Trump is not a fascist and calling him a fascist doesn't make him one. Fascism is characterized by extreme nationalism, militarism, and the supremacy of the nation over the individual. Trump espouses none of these things. Trump's driving force is simple greed and self aggrandizement. He's a malignant narcissist that only cares about Trump.

To Trump, Musk and the Republicans it's all about money. They support the military not for the military's sake but for the millions of dollars in contributions that flow in from military contractors. To the Trump supporters it's all about "winning" after a lifetime of "losing."

The majority of people that support Trump are convinced that he's somehow fighting their battle for them. They're happy as long as they see themselves as "winning" and people that they don't like as "losing." It's not any deeper than that.

But the people I really blame for sticking us with Trump are the pure lilies of the left.

These are people who are totally intolerant of anyone that disagrees with them. We wouldn't be stuck with Trump now if millions of left wing idiots hadn't decided that because Harris wasn't walking around waving a Palestinian flag, that they weren't going to vote for her. They stayed home because they didn't like her stance on a war they didn't understand in a region of the world that they knew nothing about.

The right is ignorant but the left is arrogant. Those of us in the middle are disgusted with both of you.

Saturday, February 22, 2025

The Musk Saga Continues

The more I hear about Musk and company the worse it gets and I had a REALLY low opinion of them to begin with.

Is Trump smart enough to be doing a Machiavelli with Musk? 

Prince sends Envoy to town or village. 

Envoy does bad stuff and people hate Envoy. 

Prince rides in, is horrified at the bad stuff that Envoy is doing. 

Prince chastises envoy for doing bad stuff. 

Envoy sees error of his ways or gets punished.

People cheer wildly for Prince as he rides out in triumph. 

I almost hope that he is that smart but I sort of doubt it.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

150 Year-Olds Getting Social Security

 DOGE has found FRAUD!!! (not really). At least one commentator called it the biggest money laundering scheme in history!!! (he's just an idiot). Trump's press secretary broke the stunning news that tens of millions of people were fraudulently receiving Social Security checks!!! (nah, also not true).

So what's going on?

A couple of things really. Musk put out a spreadsheet supposedly listing the number of people at various ages marked as "alive" in the Social Security database including thousands that were listed at 150 years old. The list, for all ages, totaled up to almost 400 million people.

So Musk, the commentator and the press secretary immediately yelled FRAUD!!! If they had done just a tad more research they might not have made themselves look foolish.

First, the obvious. Being marked as "alive" is not the same thing as receiving benefits even if you appear to be old enough to do so.

Second, Social Security uses COBOL to manage its database. COBOL tracks dates by using a counter from a reference date. The usual reference date used is May 20th, 1875, which is the date of the signing of the international treaty on weights and measures. Any date not entered, or entered in the wrong format, would get a zero value and default to May 20th, 1875 which is probably how they're getting 150 year-olds.

Third, Social Security automatically stops benefits if someone turns 115. I suppose if you really do live that long you'll have to figure out a way to get them turned back on. When I get to 115 I'll let you know.

Fourth, the Inspector General's Office did a report in 2023 reporting that many entries for individuals showing as over 100 years old were incomplete but...since 98% of them weren't receiving benefits anyway, it wasn't worth the cost to update them.

So it's all a big fart nothing but now we have millions of people thinking that Social Security is a big money laundering fraud. So Musk and company have achieved their goal of making Social Security vulnerable.

Saturday, February 08, 2025

Equity vs Equality

The "E" in DEI stands for equity and not equality. So what's the difference?

According to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, "Equal­i­ty assumes that every­body is oper­at­ing at the same start­ing point and will face the same cir­cum­stances and chal­lenges. Equi­ty rec­og­nizes the short­com­ings of this ​“one-size-fits-all” approach."


The above image is a famous example. The first image represents "equality" where each person gets one box even though the first individual doesn't even need it. The second image represents "equity" where each individual gets what he needs.

Other examples include shoe sizes and healthcare. It's better to give each person shoes that fit rather than the same size and it makes more sense to treat what's actually wrong with the patient rather than giving each patient the same treatment.

The problem with all of these examples is they assume infinite resources and everyone ending up with a satisfactory conclusion.

Let's modify the fence analogy a bit and assume that the fence represents an obstacle to success and being able to look over the fence represents overcoming the obstacle and achieving success. Let's also assume that the boxes represent an investment in resources such as education and training.

Realistically no one can succeed without some investment in resources so let's modify the first picture to show all three individuals blocked by the fence and each needing one, two and three boxes respectively to see over it.

Equality would be giving each person one box. That would allow only one person, the tallest, to succeed. Therefore we would get one success at a cost of three boxes. 

If we gave each individual what they needed to succeed it would cost six boxes and we would get three successes. Each success would now cost only two boxes but we would need twice the resources.

Now let's consider what the height of the individuals in the example represents. It would seem the taller an individual is then the fewer resources are required for him to succeed so perhaps height represents talent or aptitude. 

Well, if we were to search out three tall individuals, and give each of them one box, then we would get three successes for three boxes or one success per box. Alternatively we could give the tallest one box, the medium height individual two boxes, and the shortest individual none and get two successes for our three boxes.

This is a strategic allocation of resources intended to maximize return on investment,

This is what we used to do. We would use testing and interviews to find candidates that had the highest probability to succeed for the fewest resources. I'm not sure why we stopped doing this. No one has a right to demand a greater resource investment because they are less likely to succeed. 

Certainly no one has the right to demand that resources be taken away from someone else so they can succeed.

Wednesday, February 05, 2025

Me and Trump and a Dog Named Blue

Nort much of a title because I couldn't even get it to rhyme.

So what do I think about Trump's actions so far?

Illegal Immigration

I don't have a problem with declaring an emergency or sending troops to the southern border. It's just unclear to me if these moves are going to be effective as well as flashy. If you listen to the MAGATs then the southern border has been closed; if you listen to others then not so much.

Besides, I don't think troops can be kept there indefinitely so this may turn out to be just a stop gap measure.

As for rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them, again I'm not sure if this is more than a flash in the pan. In FY 2024 271,000 illegal immigrants were deported. That comes out to 742 a day. So far the numbers under Trump have been higher but not that much higher, In the first week DHS reportedly deported 7,300 people. That comes out to 1,042 a day but there may have been people already in the pipeline.

Trump is reportedly unhappy with the pace and has communicated to senior ICE officials a “quota” of 75 arrests per day for each of the agency’s 25 field offices. That would be 1,875 arrests per day. It's unclear what percentage of arrests result in deportations but let's assume it's 100%. That would be 684,375 deportations. If there are 11 million illegal immigrants that would take about 16 years to get the job done assuming no more enter.

Then again Stephen Miller says that the 1,875 arrests represents a floor and not a ceiling.

None of this works unless you eliminate the attraction for coming here by making people that hire illegal immigrants face harsh penalties.

Elimination of DEI Offices and Programs

This works for me as well. As I've said I think DEI does more harm than good but some of his underlings might be taking things a bit too far such as removing a training video featuring the Tuskegee Airman. Yes it was restored but come on.

Threats about Greenland and the Panama Canal

This is just idiotic. If Denmark wants to sell Greenland (they don't) and the people of Greenland want to be part of the US (they don't) that would be OK but they don't and they don't.

Trump should leave Panama alone. The new carriers can't fit through the canal anyway.

DOGE

I talked about this at length in the previous post. This is the dumbest thing that Trump has done. Even if the function is a good idea having Elon Musk lead the effort is not.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Clearly Trump thinks he can get some sort of concessions related to illegal immigrants and drugs crossing the border. If he can, then more power to him. But if he can't, then he paints himself into a corner where either he has to blink or put a big dent in the economy, risk inflation and make the stock market even more gimpy than its been. I've been getting whiplash from following the gyrations.

Tariffs on China

It's less clear to me what he's trying to accomplish here. I think I'll take a wait and see attitude.

Displacing the Palestinians from Gaza and Building a Tourist Resort

WTF man? Just WTF? I'm glad Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians told him to stuff it. I mean displace hundreds of thousands of people? WTF man? Just WTF?

Banning Trans Athletes in Women's Sports

I sort of agree with the objective here but I'm not sure this is going to accomplish a ban. It changes the interpretation of Title IX to no longer include allowing trans athletes to compete in events of their gender rather than their sex but not protecting something is not the same thing as banning it.

DOGE

DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency is a big problem primarily because Elon Musk is running it.

I have no issue with investigating inefficiency and fraud but, first, I thought we had an Inspector General's office to do that? What are those folks doing to earn their pay? 

Second, having someone investigating that cares more about being in the limelight than actually doing the job is a major problem. From what I've heard some of the stunts he's pulled are causing severe irritation if they aren't downright illegal. Musk and his goons should not have access to sensitive personal information such as security numbers and medical records.

Third, there is a clear conflict of interest here because and "cuts" that Musk comes up with will go directly toward financing the tax cuts he and his ilk have been promised.

Allow me to explain. The Republicans want to implement tax cuts or at the very least make the Trump tax cuts from 2017 extended or permanent, They don't have to votes to do that in the Senate except through a Budget Reconciliation bill which only requires 51 votes to pass. They might even have a hard time getting that but they're never getting 60 votes for a tax cut.

But, Budget Reconciliation must be budget neutral and tax cuts are considered spending. So for every tax cut dollar they need to a cut a dollar from current spending. Do you see the problem here? Musk and others stand to benefit directly from any spending cuts. That's a conflict of interest.

Saturday, February 01, 2025

Black History Month

February is "Black History Month."

Personally I was never a fan of any of the various "months." They didn't bother me but I just never saw the point especially given that they made the shortest month of the year "Black History Month" (yes, I know that it coincides with the birthdays of President Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass which is why it's February).

Why should we celebrate subgroups of Americans? Why are we constantly dividing people into competing groups? Celebrating the accomplishments of individuals is different. I don't see anything wrong with that as long as the individual and the accomplishments are worthy of celebrating. The melting pot concept was much better than having groups that are constantly competing with each other rather than working toward a common goal.

I also hear people mixing up equality and equity and sometimes using them as interchangeable.

Equality and equity are two very different things. Equality provides equal opportunity while equity requires equal outcomes which is a little absurd. I can give you the opportunity to bat in a major league baseball game but I can't guarantee that you'll hit the ball.

The FAA and DEI

With the collision of an American Airlines plane and an army helicopter in DC the other night, and then Trump blaming the collision on DEI, I figured I should look into this a bit.

Having had some interaction with the FAA while training as an aircraft mechanic I can safely say that at least back then these were not people about to cut any corners. Safety was their first, last and middle names for obvious reasons.

But that was a long time ago. What about now?

What I do know is the FAA was using a "Biographical Assessment" test as a screening tool from 2013 up until 2018 for ATC candidates. 

Some critics argued that the questionnaire could lead to hiring less qualified candidates but proponents disagreed. 

There is an ongoing class action lawsuit related to the "Biographical Assessment" test. It was replaced in 2018, due to Congress passing a law banning its use, with the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test.

Personally, having not taken either, I know nothing about these two exams beyond their names.

However, the "Biographical Assessment" test was apparently intended to broaden the potential pool of ATC recruits. It's been my experience that broadening the pool of applicants is a good thing unless it's done artificially.

Regardless, both the "Biographical Assessment" test and the "Air Traffic Skills Assessment" test are screening tests. I would assume that the people who score the highest are then accepted for the rigorous training associated with becoming an air traffic controller.

So I would have a couple of questions. First, what effect did changing the screening test have on the number that passed the test? Second, how did those who passed the different screening tests do in completing the training? Were any adjustments ever made to the training requirements in order to get more candidates successfully through the training?

Of course I'll never get any answers to these questions but perhaps someone else might.

Regrets About Voting for Trump?

A lot of people are claiming that Trump voters are regretting their choice given the chaos that has ensued and the clown choices for the cabinet. You'll excuse me but I don't buy it.

I don’t see a lot of regret among Trump voters. Most of them seem to be cheering him on and I’m afraid that will be the case for a long time.

The formula seems to be as follows:

(1) anything that goes right is because Trump is a genius and made it go right and 

(2) anything that goes wrong is the fault of (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants and Trump is working very hard to fix the problems caused by (pick one or more) Biden, Democrats, Obama, DEI, the Deep State, the biased media, China, illegal immigrants.

It's going to be a long four years.

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Trump EO Halted

 A federal judge has placed a halt on Trump's EO on birthright citizenship. That didn't take long did it?

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Let's Talk Birthright Citizenship

Birthright Citizenship simply refers to the principle that if you are born in the US then you are a US citizen. This has been the traditional interpretation of the 14th Amendment which states:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Despite what much of the media is saying Trump is NOT, at least not yet, trying to eliminate birthright citizenship or defy the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.

The claim, and it has been a conservative claim for at least a decade, is that illegal aliens, and therefore their offspring, are not "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" of the United States and therefore are not automatically granted citizenship.

This seems to contradict a Supreme Court decision in 1898. In the landmark case “U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark” the Supreme Court decided that the 14th Amendment must be interpreted based upon English Common Law and included all native-born children except for those who were: (1) born to foreign rulers or diplomats, (2) born on foreign public ships, or (3) born to enemy forces engaged in hostile occupation of the country's territory.

Note that "born to illegal immigrants" is not listed as an exception. The problem is that Wong Kim Ark's parents were LEGAL immigrants. 

The question was referred to in a footnote in "Plyler v. Doe" in 1982 which interpreted "Wong Kim Ark" as making "no plausible distinction...between legal and illegal resident aliens."

"Plyler v. Doe" may not settle the matter because the footnote is dictum and could arguably be said to be a misinterpretation of "Wong Kim Ark."

Besides, we already know that this court doesn't care about legal precedent or stare decisis. If they can overturn the 50 year old "Roe v. Wade" then why not the 125 year old "Wong Kim Ark?"

Trump's Busy First Day

As promised (threatened?) Trump issued a flurry of executive orders on day one but less than some of his cronies said were going to be issued. It was hardly "shock and awe." Here are the biggies and my opinions on them.

Pardoned 1,500 convicted January 6th rioters.

This is by far the most egregious and disgusting thing that Trump has ever done. There can't be any doubt now who instigated the riot and there can't be any doubt about Trump's disdain for the rule of law.

Declared an emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border.

He did this in his first term as well. Basically it allows him to deploy federal troops to help guard the border and divert defense funds towards building his long promised wall.

This is a big meh. Troops aren't very effective in this role and the wall never seems to get built. I'm still waiting for Mexico to pay for that wall by the way.

Designated "certain international cartels" and organizations, such as Tren de Aragua and MS-13, as foreign terrorist organizations and announced plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target them.

Saying you're going to do something and effectively doing it are two different things. I'll reserve judgement on this one but I don't have any particular problem with the idea.

Signed an order withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty.

He withdrew in his first term as well claiming that the treaty was biased against the US. Honestly I haven't heard much about the treaty recently so I'm not sure how effective it is anyway. So also a big meh.

Froze federal hiring, except for members of the military or “positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, or public safety.”

We'll see how long this lasts as people continue to resign and things don't get done. Hiring freezes from the top usually backfire and I expect this one to backfire as well.

Restored a category of federal workers known as Schedule F, which would lack the same job protections enjoyed by career civil servants.

As I've said before this may well be the most dangerous thing. It basically allows replacing civil servants and matter experts with political loyalists. Can you spell Union of Soviet Socialist Republics? This is what the USSR used to do. They put party loyalists in positions of authority for which they had no qualifications.

Halted new federal rules from going into effect before Trump administration appointees can review them.

I don't really have a problem with this one. I would have done the same. Unfortunately I'm not sure the people reviewing these rules have the expertise to review them properly.

Granted top secret security clearances to White House staff without going through traditional vetting procedures.

Given that the Trump team doesn't seem to have properly vetting this staff this strikes me as extremely stupid and dangerous. 

Ended remote work policies and order federal workers back to the office full time.

OK, but I would have left this up to the middle managers who have a better handle on how well remote work is getting things done.

Barred asylum for people newly arriving at the southern border.

Not a big surprise. This sounds reasonable but this is outside my area of expertise.

Moved to end birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment, for the children of undocumented immigrants.

Basically claiming that illegal immigrants and thus their children are not "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States as required in the 14th Amendment. This has been a conservative talking point for at least a decade. This has already been challenged in court. The SCOTUS has rejected similar arguments in the past but what this court will do is anybody's guess.

Terminated DEI programs across the federal government.

I'm not a fan of DEI so I'm all for this.

Recognized two sexes: male and female.

I'm not aware of anyone that said there are more than two. Does it actually refer to genders? I'm not sure this will have any practical effect.

Removed protections for transgender people in federal prisons.

This sounds like it could get someone killed and I honestly don't see the point.

Directed federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices.

I have no problem with this one. I also expect nothing to come of it.

Ordered the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.

The Office of Tariff Affairs & Trade Agreements already does this. This is a big change from his declaration that he would create such an agency. Apparently the moron didn't know it already existed.

Ordered a full review of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security-related tariffs are warranted.

This is also a big retreat from assessing punishing new tariffs on day one. I don't really have a problem with this and it looks like somebody in the administration might actually understand how tariffs work and what they're good for.

Ordered his attorney general not to enforce a law that banned the TikTok site for 75 days to give the administration “an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward.”

I think TikTok is a cesspool that we would all be better of without but I don't really see a problem with taking this direction.

Withdraw from the World Health Organization.

He did this in his first administration. The WHO is just a boogey man for some of his ignorant followers. This is a mistake that may come to bite us in the ass down the road.

Rename Mount Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.

I suspect everyone will ignore his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America but I'm not sure about Denali going back to McKinley. I think this is a petty and stupid move. It's something that I would expect from a petulant child and not a president.

Ensure that states carrying out the death penalty have a “sufficient supply” of lethal injection drugs.

I think we should be banning the death penalty rather than insuring death sentences can be carried out. Again, I don't see the point of this.

Implement the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led cost-cutting initiative.

This one is apparently violating several laws and has already been challenged. But, again, it's impossible to say what this SCOTUS will decide and I'm pretty sure that's where this will end up.

Revoked security clearances for 51 signers of a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.

This is just petty and stupid.

The bottom line is that Trump has again demonstrated that he's a petty, vindictive narcissist that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near any position of authority. But let's see how these things work out in practice before we get too bent out of shape. 

Monday, January 20, 2025

College Football Playoff V

 The championship game has arrived.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl)

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 23, No. 8 Ohio State 34 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia)

Congratulations Buckeyes.

Saturday, January 18, 2025

The Department of Education

Trump and his cronies want to eliminate the Department of Education. Much of what the DOE does is to fund special education programs in the states. About 60% of this money flows to red states.

So basically it takes blue state tax dollars and gives them to red states because the red states want to keep their taxes low rather than support education for their own children. Did I get that right?

OK, that was a bit snarky, but I live in New Jersey and, according to the Rockefeller Institute, New Jersey sends $3,100 more per year, per person to the federal government than it gets back. That translates to $9,300 for my household alone. It sure would be nice if a couple of thousand of that would go toward reducing my property taxes instead.

My town has an education budget of $27 million and it gets $162 thousand from the federal government for special education programs. That’s about 0.6%. Given that the town has a population of about 10,000 that’s a pretty bad exchange for the approximately $31 million extra that we’re providing to the federal government per year.

If I’m supposed to be voting for my best interests, then perhaps I should be cheering Trump on as he shuts down the DOE.

I didn’t vote for Trump because I think he’s going to do a lot of damage to a lot of innocent people and perhaps closing the DOE would be part of that damage. But there is a degree of frustration here as blue state tax dollars continue to get shuffled to red states for things those states should be paying for themselves.

Friday, January 17, 2025

The ERA Amendment, Again

President Joe Biden has declared "The Equal Rights Amendment is the law of the land — now!" 

He made this announcement during a speech to the U.S. Conference of Mayors. "It's the 28th amendment to the Constitution — now."

Or, maybe not. 

Supporters claimed that when Virginia ratified five years ago that it was the 38th state to do so and therefore the amendment had been ratified. Biden didn't say why he waited until only two days were left in his presidency to make this pronouncement.

Biden can declare whatever he wants but the President has no role in amending the Constitution. The amendment would have to be certified by the National Archivist and the Archivist's office has said that the ERA "cannot be certified as part of the Constitution due to established legal, judicial, and procedural decisions."

There are a flurry of issues with this amendment. 

The first issue is time. The original amendment had a time limit in the preamble of March of 1979. Then Congress extended the time limit until June of 1982. A federal district court held that congress had no power to do that. This was appealed to the SCOTUS which allowed the date of June 1982 to pass and then declared that the issue was moot.

Supporters claim that since the time limit was in the preamble it doesn't count. Well, then why did Congress extend it? Even if the original limit didn't count certainly one could argue that the extended one counts. The SCOTUS essentially said so when it declared the issue moot.

The second issue is that six state legislatures, Nebraska, Tennessee, Idaho, Kentucky, South Dakota and North Dakota, have rescinded ratification. The Kentucky resolution to rescind was vetoed by the Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky acting in the absence of the governor.

So there are two questions here. First, can a state rescind ratification? It would make sense that it could in order to give voters a chance to express disapproval. 

If it can, then can the governor veto the resolution that rescinds ratification? Although that wouldn't matter here but it leads to the question of whether a governor can veto ratification? I would say he can't veto ratification so he probably can't veto rescinding ratification assuming that a state can rescind ratification.

I think this duck is dead regardless of what Biden says. I'll be surprised if we hear any more about it although it would nice to have the SCOTUS resolve all the open questions.

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Potential Republican Cuts?

Politico published a list of cuts that House Republicans are supposedly considering supposedly to fund Trump's tax cuts and mass deportation agendas. I've included the list but I have no way of knowing either how accurate the list is or how accurate the savings numbers are. The savings are over 10 years.

PENDING REFORM OPTIONS

Policy Explainer

Topline Savings: $5.3 - $5.7 T

1. REPEAL MAJOR BIDEN HEALTH RULES ($420B)

2. STRENGTHEN MEDICARE FOR SENIORS ($479B)

o Site Neutral – $146B

o Uncompensated Care – $229B

o Bad Debt – $42B

o BCA Mandatory Sequester Extension - $62B

3. MAKING MEDICAID WORK FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE ($2.3T)

o Per Capita Caps - up to $918B

o Equalize Medicaid Payments for Able Bodied Adults - up to $690B

o Limit Medicaid Provider Taxes - $175B

o Lower FMAP Floor - $387B

o Special FMAP Treatment for DC – $8B

o Repeal American Rescue Plan FMAP Incentive – $18B

o Medicaid Work Requirements - $120B

4. REIMAGINING THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT (ACA) ($151B)

o Recapture Excess Premium Tax Credit – $46B

o Limit Health Program Eligibility Based on Citizenship Status - $35B

o Repeal the Prevention Public Health Fund – $15B

o Appropriate Cost Sharing Reductions - $55B

5. ENDING CRADLE-TO-GRAVE DEPENDENCE ($347B)

o Reinstate the Trump-era Public Charge Rule -- $15B

o Reduce TANF by 10 Percent – $15B

o Eliminate the TANF Contingency Fund -- $6B

o Reform the Thrifty Food Plan -- up to $274B

o Eliminate the Social Services Block Grant – $15B

o SNAP Reforms – $22B

6. REVERSING BIDEN CLIMATE POLICIES ($468B)

o Discontinue the Green New Deal Provisions in the 2021 Infrastructure Bill – $300B

o Repeal EV Mandate – $112B

o Repeal IRA green energy grant s– $56B

7. OTHER: ($917B-$1T)

o End the Student Loan Bailout – $200-330B

o Rescind all Unspent COVID Money – $11B

o Auction Spectrum – $60 billion

o Repeal Orderly Liquidation Authority – $22 billion

o Increase FERS Contributions – $45 billion

o Other federal employee benefit reforms – $32 billion

o Restrict emergency spending to recent average—$500B

o Eliminate the TSP G Fund Subsidy – $47B

8. POTENTIAL TAX OFFSETS: ($227-$527B)

o Green energy tax credits – $200 - $500B, depending on political viability

o SSN CTC Requirement – $27B 

Friday, January 10, 2025

College Football Playoff IV

I forgot all about the game last night and missed it. Well, I'm not missing tonight's game.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 6 Penn State 24 (Orange Bowl)

Friday, Jan. 10

No. 5 Texas 14, No. 8 Ohio State 28 (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Well, only two left. It should be quite a treat. Interesting that the 7th and 8th seeds made it to the title game.

Saturday, January 04, 2025

Stock Options

Ever wonder how CEOs and other executives get really rich really fast? Well no more. Welcome to the wonderful world of stock options.

Salary and stock granted as compensation are taxed as ordinary income but not stock options because the option may never be exercised.

Incentive stock options which are awarded to CEOs and executives are known as statutory stock options.

From IRS Topic no. 427, Stock options:

"Options granted under an employee stock purchase plan or an incentive stock option (ISO) plan are statutory stock options."

Also from IRS Topic no. 427"

"If your employer grants you a statutory stock option, you generally don't include any amount in your gross income when you receive or exercise the option. However, you may be subject to alternative minimum tax in the year you exercise an ISO...You have taxable income or deductible loss when you sell the stock you bought by exercising the option. You generally treat this amount as a capital gain or loss. However, if you don't meet special holding period requirements, you'll have to treat income from the sale as ordinary income."

So stock options have two advantages. First, you get to buy the stock at below market value because options are almost always discounted. Second, assuming you meet the holding period requirements which are typically pretty modest, the compensation is treated as Long Term Capitol Gains rather than ordinary income. Hell, if you hold onto the stock no taxes may be paid for 10, 20 years.

If you think this is fair, then so be it. I think it's insane that we have store clerks paying normal income tax while CEOs get millions in compensation that they only pay LTCGs on or perhaps no tax at all for years.

Thursday, January 02, 2025

College Football Playoff III

Today is the postponed Sugar Bowl.

It's the 12 team playoff format.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10, No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24, No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee 17, No. 8 Ohio State 42

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State 14, No. 6 Penn State 31 (Fiesta Bowl)

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State 31, No. 5 Texas 39 - 2 OT (Peach Bowl)

No. 1 Oregon 21, No. 8 Ohio State 41 (Rose Bowl)

It's sort of interesting that three of the four teams that had a bye have lost. Either the ranking process has a flaw or rust over rest? We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There was an incident in New Orleans which is being investigated as a Terrorist Attack. Someone drove a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street. At least 10 people were reported killed and police took out the driver of the truck. As a result the Sugar Bowl has been postponed until tomorrow evening.

Thursday, Jan. 2

No. 2 Georgia 10. No. 7 Notre Dame 23 (Sugar Bowl)

Well, that completes the sweep. All four teams with a first round round bye, and coming into the playoff ranked 1-4, have lost. Only #4, Arizona State, put up a credible fight. That game looked like it was going to be a rout but Arizona State stormed back to make it by far the best of the four Quarterfinal games. 

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

TBD vs. TBD (Orange Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Jan. 10

TBD vs. TBD (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

Monday, Jan 20

TBD vs. TBD (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Talking Generations

People on line love to criticize generations. Gen Z is this or Boomers are that seems to be a popular topic.

I think it's dangerous and misleading to characterize an entire generation. There are often big differences between the youngest members of a generation and the oldest. People seem especially fond of criticizing Gen Z. According to a number of videos that I've seen recently they're apparently the reason for teachers quitting. But if people are referring to current middle school and high school students then they are the younger Gen Z members. The older ones would already be in their 20s.

Sometimes the differences between younger and older members of a generation are huge because the differences in their life experiences are huge.  Consider Boomers from 1946 to 1964. The youngest had parents that were children, or not even born, during WW 2, never had to register for the draft, were born after, or were too young to remember, the Kennedy assassination and were too young to be a part of the 60s sexual revolution. For the oldest their parents were WW 2 veterans or worked in the factories building the weapons, the draft was a major part of their lives, the Kennedy assassination was a watershed moment and "make love not war" was their calling card. A Boomer born in 1948 (waves hand) is a totally different animal than one born in 1962. I have to assume that the same is true for Gen Z.

Some Notes on Inflation

There are two types of inflation. The first is cost-push inflation. This occurs when production costs increase leading companies to increase prices. This is the primary type of inflation that we've been experiencing since the end of Covid.

The second is demand-pull inflation which occurs when consumer demand exceeds available supply. When you raise salaries on a broad scale in order to try and catch up with cost-push inflation it will often lead to demand-pull inflation because more people have more money to spend. 

But raising salaries will always outpace demand-pull inflation. When salaries fail to keep up with inflation it is almost always cost-push inflation that is causing the problem.

Wednesday, January 01, 2025

Still Arguing about the 2024 Election

People continue to argue about why Trump won. Personally I'm not sure if Trump won or the Democrats lost. I see lots of claims that Trump's victory was somehow based upon "bigotry." 

I don't think "bigotry" had a lot to do with it. It was primarily the economy; it's almost always the economy. The Republicans, with lots of help from the media, made the case that the economy was in shambles, that inflation was much higher than it was and somehow this was all the fault of illegal immigrants. This perception was something neither Biden nor Harris adequately addressed. Instead they quoted economic indicators. Economic indicators don't pay bills or put food on the table.

A second issue was that the Dems keep pushing unpopular policies that are related to economic issues. Just look at the ABC/Ipsos poll on the Supreme Court decisions in the summer of 2023. 

45% approved of the Court striking down Biden's loan forgiveness program and only 40% disapproved. But only 17% of Democrats agreed with the Court.

52% approved of the Court striking down Affirmative Action and only 32% disapproved. But only 26% of Democrats agreed with the Court.

A third issue is that the Dems didn't address things that people expected them to address when they had majorities in both houses and the presidency. They didn't put in place a national law to protect abortion; they didn't raise the minimum wage; they didn't restore full SALT deductions; they didn't expand Medicare to cover eye exams and dental and they didn't do anything to shore up Social Security.

A party can't be this far out of touch with the majority of the country, fail to do the things they claim to support and succeed,