Wednesday, November 09, 2022

The 2022 Election, The Day After

 It wasn't great but it wasn't nearly as bad as people were afraid it was going to be.

The House

Republicans will take control of the House but probably with a much more precarious majority than previously predicted.

Real Clear Politics had the Republicans with 227 seats, the Democrats with 174 and 34 undecided. The current NBC projection is Republicans with 222 seats, the Democrats with 213.

The Senate

It's not over yet. The Republicans currently have a 49 - 48 advantage:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Going to a Run-off, Nevada Republican Leading, Arizona Democrat Leading, New Hampshire Democrat.

It looks like Nevada will go Republican and Arizona will go Democrat. Assuming I'm right that would mean:

Real Clear Politics had 4 right, 2 wrong, and then there's Georgia which RCP said would be Republican.

Electoral Vote had 6 right, 0 wrong, then there's Georgia which EV said was a Toss-up.

Five Thirty Eight had 3 right, 0 wrong, but had Georgia as Republican and Republicans  ahead  in Pennsylvania and Nevada.

So, when all was said and done. Electoral Vote wasn't the outlier but rather the most accurate essentially calling all seven races correctly. Real Clear Politics called four correctly and Five Thirty Eight called four correctly as well. Of course this is assuming that my Arizona and Nevada predictions hold up.

It looks like it's going to come down to the run-off in Georgia. Where have I heard this one before?

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