Saturday, September 10, 2016

Election 2016 VI

It's Saturday and time for an update.
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.0%, Trump - 32.0% - Trump +0.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 29.9% - Trump +1.4
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 74.7%, Trump - 25.3% - Clinton +4.1

Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 45.6%, Trump 42.9%, Clinton +2.7 - Clinton -1.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Unchanged

Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .31 - Clinton +.02, Trump - No Change

The race continues to narrow. I seriously don't get it. A while back I observed that Trump has made open bigotry acceptable. Perhaps what we're finding out is how many bigots there are in this country?

Another tidbit that's a bit worrying is I saw an analysis that says that the live poll results and internet poll results are diverging with Clinton doing better in the live polls while Trump is doing better in the anonymous internet polls.

There is a rule of thumb that says people will sometimes lie and tell a pollster what they think they should say because they don't want the pollster to think badly of them. This is sometimes called the Bradley effect. On the Internet it's anonymous so this isn't an issue.

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